Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 108851 10.2205/2026es001120 zekjci KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025 Kamchatka Megaearthquake on July 29, 2025: Reflection of the Preparation Process in the Results of Multi-Instrumental Geophysical Measurements in the Avacha Bay Area Kamchatka Megaearthquake on July 29, 2025: Reflection of the Preparation Process in the Results of Multi-Instrumental Geophysical Measurements in the Avacha Bay Area https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8256-3306 Гаврилов Валерий Александрович Gavrilov Valery Aleksandrovich vgavr1403@mail.ru

доктор физико-математических наук;адъюнкт архитектуры;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;adjunct of architecture;

 https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4253-3926 Полтавцева Евгения Викторовна Poltavtseva Evgenia Viktorovna https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3209-1093 Бусс Юлия Юрьевна Buss Yulia Yurievna https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3797-7117 Морозова Юлия Валерьевна Morozova Julia Valerievna https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2491-1391 Сагаряров И. А. Sagaryarov I. A. Институт вулканологии и сейсмологии ДВО РАН Петропавловск-Камчатский Россия Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Петропавловск-Камчатский Russian Federation Камчатский государственный университет имени Витуса Беринга Россия Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University Russian Federation Институт вулканологии и сейсмологии ДВО РАН Россия Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Камчатский государственный университет имени Витуса Беринга Россия Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University Russian Federation Институт вулканологии и сейсмологии ДВО РАН Россия Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Институт вулканологии и сейсмологии ДВО РАН Россия Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Камчатский государственный университет имени Витуса Беринга Россия Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University Russian Federation Институт вулканологии и сейсмологии ДВО РАН Россия Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Камчатский государственный университет имени Витуса Беринга Россия Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University Russian Federation 01 07 2026 01 07 2026 26 2 ES2010 02 02 2026 25 05 2026 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/108851/view

This article discusses the results of long-term multi-instrumental geophysical measurements in the Avacha Bay area (the eastern coast of Kamchatka), conducted for the purpose of medium- and short-term seismic hazard prediction for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky region. The most important results, reflecting the starting process of the Kamchatka megaearthquake (July 29, 2025, MW = 8.8), were obtained using data from the Multi-Instrumental Borehole Measurement Network, as well as data from monitoring changes in the total electron content of the ionosphere. Data obtained from six types of borehole measurements are used to monitor the initial processes of large earthquakes in the Avacha Bay area. The basic types of monitoring are two original methods developed by the authors: a method for monitoring changes in the specific electrical resistance (SER) of the geoenvironment using underground electrical antennas, and a method for monitoring changes in the geoenvironment moisture based on borehole geoacoustic measurement data. It is shown that a record-breaking SER anomaly (amplitude, duration) formed in the Avacha Bay area on the eve of the Kamchatka megaearthquake. This anomaly was reflected in SER monitoring data for a monitoring depth of 2200 m beginning in mid-2018, and in data for a depth of 950 m in early 2021. Since January 2014, the Laboratory for Multi-Instrumental Monitoring of Seismically Active Environments at the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IVS FEB RAS) has been regularly (usually every two weeks) preparing conclusions with seismic hazard assessments for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky agglomeration area based on the current results of geophysical measurements in the Avacha Bay area. The research focused not on accurately predicting the timing and parameters of a strong earthquake (which is inherently impossible) but on probabilistically assessing the current seismic hazard for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky agglomeration. This approach enabled the authors to successfully predict two strong foreshocks of the Kamchatka megaearthquake – the Shipunskoye-1 earthquake (August 17, 2024; MW = 7.0) and the Shipunskoye-2 earthquake (July 20, 2025, MW = 7.4), which caused tremors of up to points 6.0 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

This article discusses the results of long-term multi-instrumental geophysical measurements in the Avacha Bay area (the eastern coast of Kamchatka), conducted for the purpose of medium- and short-term seismic hazard prediction for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky region. The most important results, reflecting the starting process of the Kamchatka megaearthquake (July 29, 2025, MW = 8.8), were obtained using data from the Multi-Instrumental Borehole Measurement Network, as well as data from monitoring changes in the total electron content of the ionosphere. Data obtained from six types of borehole measurements are used to monitor the initial processes of large earthquakes in the Avacha Bay area. The basic types of monitoring are two original methods developed by the authors: a method for monitoring changes in the specific electrical resistance (SER) of the geoenvironment using underground electrical antennas, and a method for monitoring changes in the geoenvironment moisture based on borehole geoacoustic measurement data. It is shown that a record-breaking SER anomaly (amplitude, duration) formed in the Avacha Bay area on the eve of the Kamchatka megaearthquake. This anomaly was reflected in SER monitoring data for a monitoring depth of 2200 m beginning in mid-2018, and in data for a depth of 950 m in early 2021. Since January 2014, the Laboratory for Multi-Instrumental Monitoring of Seismically Active Environments at the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IVS FEB RAS) has been regularly (usually every two weeks) preparing conclusions with seismic hazard assessments for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky agglomeration area based on the current results of geophysical measurements in the Avacha Bay area. The research focused not on accurately predicting the timing and parameters of a strong earthquake (which is inherently impossible) but on probabilistically assessing the current seismic hazard for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky agglomeration. This approach enabled the authors to successfully predict two strong foreshocks of the Kamchatka megaearthquake – the Shipunskoye-1 earthquake (August 17, 2024; MW = 7.0) and the Shipunskoye-2 earthquake (July 20, 2025, MW = 7.4), which caused tremors of up to points 6.0 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

 Seismic hazard prediction active earthquake preparation phase consolidation model borehole measurements underground electric antenna Kamchatka megaearthquake Seismic hazard prediction active earthquake preparation phase consolidation model borehole measurements underground electric antenna Kamchatka megaearthquake This study was conducted within the framework of the state assignment of the IVS FEB RAS (Project No. FWME-2024-0010) and the state assignment of the Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University (Project No. FZSS-2025-0007). The authors are grateful to Doctor of Geological and Mineral Sciences A. I. Kozhurin and Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences A. V. Solomatin for useful discussions that contributed to improving this article. The authors also express their gratitude to Natalia Kareva (the Editorial Board of the Russian Journal of Earth Sciences) for her helpful constructive comments while preparing this article for translation. This study was conducted within the framework of the state assignment of the IVS FEB RAS (Project No. FWME-2024-0010) and the state assignment of the Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University (Project No. FZSS-2025-0007). The authors are grateful to Doctor of Geological and Mineral Sciences A. I. Kozhurin and Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences A. V. Solomatin for useful discussions that contributed to improving this article. The authors also express their gratitude to Natalia Kareva (the Editorial Board of the Russian Journal of Earth Sciences) for her helpful constructive comments while preparing this article for translation.

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