Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 122469 10.2205/2026es001117 sryhrr KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025 Crustal Movements and Deformations in Relation to Seismicity in Continuation of the Preparation Period of the Kamchatka Megathrust Earthquake (2020–2025) Crustal Movements and Deformations in Relation to Seismicity in Continuation of the Preparation Period of the Kamchatka Megathrust Earthquake (2020–2025) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3284-8738 Докукин Петр Александрович Dokukin Petr Aleksandrovich https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8857-9584 Кафтан Владимир Иванович Kaftan Vladimir Ivanovich

доктор технических наук;

doctor of technical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3518-9301 Титков Николай Николаевич Titkov Nikolay Nikolaevich https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4019-4204 Чебров Данила Викторович Chebrov Danila Viktorovich Росийский университет дружбы народов Moscow Россия People's Friendship University of Russia Moscow Russian Federation Геофизический центр Российской академии наук Россия Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Камчатский филиал Федерального исследовательского центра "Единая Геофизическая служба РАН" Россия Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Камчатский филиал Федерального исследовательского центра "Единая Геофизическая служба РАН" Россия Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation 01 07 2026 01 07 2026 26 2 ES2007 02 02 2026 25 05 2026 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/122469/view

This study presents the results of a spatiotemporal analysis of crustal movements and deformations obtained by processing regional GNSS network data for a five-year period prior to the 2025 Kamchatka megaquake. The control network consisted of twenty-two continuously operating GNSS stations. Station spacing varied from 100 to 2500 km. An assessment was made of the sparse regional network’s response capabilities to the preparation of one of the strongest seismic events in history. Kinematic models were obtained for the evolution of internal displacement deficits, horizontal shear strains, and dilatation. The area of accumulated displacement deficit is regularly distributed along the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench, demonstrating resistance to the unidirectional northwestward translational motion of the Pacific tectonic plate. The evolution of total shear strain is consistent with the hypothesis of a possible triggering effect on the mature seismic source of the Kamchatka megathrust. The spatial distribution of accumulated dilatational strain reflects regional tectonic features previously identified by geophysical and geological studies. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of using sparse continuous GNSS observation networks to assess general regional geodynamic and tectonic trends in preparation of the 2025 Kamchatka megathrust.

This study presents the results of a spatiotemporal analysis of crustal movements and deformations obtained by processing regional GNSS network data for a five-year period prior to the 2025 Kamchatka megaquake. The control network consisted of twenty-two continuously operating GNSS stations. Station spacing varied from 100 to 2500 km. An assessment was made of the sparse regional network’s response capabilities to the preparation of one of the strongest seismic events in history. Kinematic models were obtained for the evolution of internal displacement deficits, horizontal shear strains, and dilatation. The area of accumulated displacement deficit is regularly distributed along the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench, demonstrating resistance to the unidirectional northwestward translational motion of the Pacific tectonic plate. The evolution of total shear strain is consistent with the hypothesis of a possible triggering effect on the mature seismic source of the Kamchatka megathrust. The spatial distribution of accumulated dilatational strain reflects regional tectonic features previously identified by geophysical and geological studies. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of using sparse continuous GNSS observation networks to assess general regional geodynamic and tectonic trends in preparation of the 2025 Kamchatka megathrust.

 GNSS internal displacement deficit crustal movements crustal deformations earthquake forecast Kamchatka megathrust earthquake GNSS internal displacement deficit crustal movements crustal deformations earthquake forecast Kamchatka megathrust earthquake This work was conducted within the framework of the state budgetary funding of the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GC RAS), provided by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, and under the State Assignment No. 075-00682-24 (“Interdepartmental Comprehensive Program of Scientific Research in the Kamchatka Peninsula and Adjacent Waters”). The most important supporting information for this article is presented in the video datasets published by the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GC RAS) in its Earth Science DataBase (ESDB) repository by Dokukin et al. [2025b,c,d]. The study also utilized data obtained from the unique research facility (https://ckp-rf.ru/usu/507436/, http://www.gsras.ru/unu/). This work was conducted within the framework of the state budgetary funding of the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GC RAS), provided by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, and under the State Assignment No. 075-00682-24 (“Interdepartmental Comprehensive Program of Scientific Research in the Kamchatka Peninsula and Adjacent Waters”). The most important supporting information for this article is presented in the video datasets published by the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GC RAS) in its Earth Science DataBase (ESDB) repository by Dokukin et al. [2025b,c,d]. The study also utilized data obtained from the unique research facility (https://ckp-rf.ru/usu/507436/, http://www.gsras.ru/unu/).

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