Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 46964 ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Solar geoeffective phenomena: Impact on the near-Earth space and the opportunity to forecast Solar geoeffective phenomena: Impact on the near-Earth space and the opportunity to forecast Ishkov V N Ishkov V N Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow Region, Russia ru Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow Region, Russia ru 10 3 1 9 10 11 2021 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/46964/view

The solar research of the last decade has left no doubt that geoeffective phenomena on the Sun, which dynamically affect the state of near-Earth space NES are extremely large flare events and coronal holes. We attribute to the class of flare phenomena solar flares with a complete spectrum of dynamic manifestations of the mass motion and radiation in all ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum as well as solar filament eruptions with all accompanying phenomena. The possibility to predict geoeffective solar phenomena and their effects on NES is based on the analysis of correlations: emergence of new magnetic fluxes in the solar atmosphere, their physical characteristics, and the character of their interaction with the already present magnetic field; time distribution of large flares within active regions; temporal and spatial distribution of solar filament eruptions; formation, distribution, and evolution of solar coronal holes CH. The agents causing NES disturbances are transient structures: coronal mass ejections, which result from active processes in flares and filament eruptions; high-speed flows of solar plasma following a shock wave from large solar flares and solar filament eruptions or outflowing from regions with an open magnetic configuration. Prediction for the beginning of NES disturbances and of their duration is possible for a period from 1 to 5 days and for coronal holes for a period of one solar revolution 27.3nbsp;days. This makes possible planning various technological, biological, and medical experiments together with protective measures for the team and instruments of space laboratories.

The solar research of the last decade has left no doubt that geoeffective phenomena on the Sun, which dynamically affect the state of near-Earth space NES are extremely large flare events and coronal holes. We attribute to the class of flare phenomena solar flares with a complete spectrum of dynamic manifestations of the mass motion and radiation in all ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum as well as solar filament eruptions with all accompanying phenomena. The possibility to predict geoeffective solar phenomena and their effects on NES is based on the analysis of correlations: emergence of new magnetic fluxes in the solar atmosphere, their physical characteristics, and the character of their interaction with the already present magnetic field; time distribution of large flares within active regions; temporal and spatial distribution of solar filament eruptions; formation, distribution, and evolution of solar coronal holes CH. The agents causing NES disturbances are transient structures: coronal mass ejections, which result from active processes in flares and filament eruptions; high-speed flows of solar plasma following a shock wave from large solar flares and solar filament eruptions or outflowing from regions with an open magnetic configuration. Prediction for the beginning of NES disturbances and of their duration is possible for a period from 1 to 5 days and for coronal holes for a period of one solar revolution 27.3nbsp;days. This makes possible planning various technological, biological, and medical experiments together with protective measures for the team and instruments of space laboratories.

 Solar geoeffective phenomena near-Earth space forecasting cyclicity of solar activity. Solar geoeffective phenomena near-Earth space forecasting cyclicity of solar activity.

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