Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 50756 10.2205/2021ES000770 ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Projected changes in the near-surface atmosphere over the Barents Sea based on CMIP5 scenarios Projected changes in the near-surface atmosphere over the Barents Sea based on CMIP5 scenarios Verezemskaya P Verezemskaya P Selivanova Yu Selivanova Yu Tilinina N. Tilinina N. Markina M. Markina M. Krinitskiy M. Krinitskiy M. Sharmar Vitali Sharmar Vitali sharmar@sail.msk.ru Razorenova O. Razorenova O. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS ru Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS ru Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Москва Россия Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow Russian Federation Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Москва Россия Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow Russian Federation Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Москва Россия Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow Russian Federation Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Москва Россия Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow Russian Federation Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS ru Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS ru Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow Россия Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow Russian Federation 02 07 2022 02 07 2022 22 3 1 11 15 09 2020 02 02 2021 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/50756/view

Atmospheric climatological characteristics of the Barents Sea were analyzed in the model output of AMIP5 models for the present climate and climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for different periods of the 21st century. The results reveal strong changes in the mean surface air temperature amounting to more than 2 degrees during the 21st century. In line with this the frequency and duration of heat waves is increasing with the number and duration of the cold waves decreasing in course of the time period analyzed. Mean wind speed demonstrates upward changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and these changes are accompanied by the upward change in the extreme wind speed over the Barents Sea at least for the first half of the century. The results are discussed in the context of potential changes in the atmospheric moisture transports which might be intensified during 21st century.

Atmospheric climatological characteristics of the Barents Sea were analyzed in the model output of AMIP5 models for the present climate and climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for different periods of the 21st century. The results reveal strong changes in the mean surface air temperature amounting to more than 2 degrees during the 21st century. In line with this the frequency and duration of heat waves is increasing with the number and duration of the cold waves decreasing in course of the time period analyzed. Mean wind speed demonstrates upward changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and these changes are accompanied by the upward change in the extreme wind speed over the Barents Sea at least for the first half of the century. The results are discussed in the context of potential changes in the atmospheric moisture transports which might be intensified during 21st century.

 Barents Sea climate change CMIP5 projections surface temperature growth marine ecology Barents Sea climate change CMIP5 projections surface temperature growth marine ecology This work was undertaken with financial support by the MEGA grant 14.W03.31.0006. Inter-annual variability analysis was conducted under RSCF grant No. 20-17-00139 This work was undertaken with financial support by the MEGA grant 14.W03.31.0006. Inter-annual variability analysis was conducted under RSCF grant No. 20-17-00139

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