Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 90324 10.2205/2025ES000962 ouyfaz Спецвыпуск: "Наука о данных, геоинформатика и системный анализ в изучении Земли" Special Issue: “Data Science, Geoinformatics and Systems Analysis in Geosciences” Спецвыпуск: "Наука о данных, геоинформатика и системный анализ в изучении Земли" Forecast of the Distribution of Hydrocarbon Accumulations by Size. Status and Issues Forecast of the Distribution of Hydrocarbon Accumulations by Size. Status and Issues https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9865-5288 Бурштейн Лев Маркович Burshteyn Lev Markovich levi@ipgg.sbras.ru

доктор геолого-минералогических наук;

doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6577-9790 Лившиц Валерий Рафаилович Livshits Valerii Rafailovich livshicvr@ipgg.sbras.ru

доктор геолого-минералогических наук;

doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences;

 Институт нефтегазовой геологии и геофизики имени А. А. Трофимука СО РАН Novosibirsk RU Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics Novosibirsk RU Новосибирский государственный университет Novosibirsk RU Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk RU 23 05 2025 23 05 2025 25 2 1 5 15 11 2024 15 04 2025 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/90324/view

The most important element of the structure of hydrocarbon resources is their distribution by accumulations of different sizes. The formalism of this direction is developed in detail. Estimates of the resource structure of the largest oil and gas provinces of Russia are carried out. However, the lack of a substantiated theoretical model for the formation of the distribution of accumulations by size gives rise to a number of problems, including practical ones. This concerns the forecast of the number of small accumulations and hydrocarbon resources concentrated in them in well-studied oil and gas systems, the forecast of distribution for poorly studied systems, and the identification of the relationship between distribution parameters and the geological characteristics of the oil and gas system. The explanation of some empirically established regularities, in particular, the stable nature of the value of the λ ~ 2 distribution parameter, is of independent theoretical interest. The paper presents the current state of this complex of problems and some possible directions for their solution.

The most important element of the structure of hydrocarbon resources is their distribution by accumulations of different sizes. The formalism of this direction is developed in detail. Estimates of the resource structure of the largest oil and gas provinces of Russia are carried out. However, the lack of a substantiated theoretical model for the formation of the distribution of accumulations by size gives rise to a number of problems, including practical ones. This concerns the forecast of the number of small accumulations and hydrocarbon resources concentrated in them in well-studied oil and gas systems, the forecast of distribution for poorly studied systems, and the identification of the relationship between distribution parameters and the geological characteristics of the oil and gas system. The explanation of some empirically established regularities, in particular, the stable nature of the value of the λ ~ 2 distribution parameter, is of independent theoretical interest. The paper presents the current state of this complex of problems and some possible directions for their solution.

 oil and gas system structure of hydrocarbon resources distribution by size of deposits truncated Pareto distribution. oil and gas system structure of hydrocarbon resources distribution by size of deposits truncated Pareto distribution. The work was carried out within the framework of the state program FSR FWZZ-2022-0007. The work was carried out within the framework of the state program FSR FWZZ-2022-0007.

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