Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 98332 10.2205/2025es001069 zokfvp ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Earthquake Loss Simulation Using the “Extremum” System: An Example of Morocco’s Territory Earthquake Loss Simulation Using the “Extremum” System: An Example of Morocco’s Territory https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5829-1603 Фролова Нина Иосифовна Frolova Nina Iosifovna frolovani@esrc.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6711-4147 Pelaez Jose A. Pelaez Jose A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8350-8744 Hamdache Mohamed Hamdache Mohamed https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0949-0427 Kijko Andrzej Kijko Andrzej https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3950-8405 Сущев Сергей Петрович Sushchev Sergey Petrovich https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4469-1205 Малаева Наталья Сергеевна Malaeva Natalya Sergeevna Институт геоэкологии им. Е.М. Сергеева РАН Россия Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation Department of Physics, University of Jaén Испания Department of Physics, University of Jaén Spain Seismic Division, CRAAG Алжир Seismic Division, CRAAG Algeria Natural Hazard Centre, University of Pretoria ЮАР Natural Hazard Centre, University of Pretoria South Africa Московский государственный технический университет имени Н.Э. Баумана Bauman Moscow State Technical University Институт геоэкологии им. Е.М. Сергеева РАН Россия Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Federation ФГБУ "Всероссийский научно-исследовательский институт по проблемам гражданской обороны и чрезвычайных ситуаций МЧС России" (федеральный центр науки и высоких технологий) Россия FSBE All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defence of the EMERCOM of Russia (the Federal Science and High Technology Center) Russian Federation 30 12 2025 30 12 2025 25 6 ES6024 23 01 2025 23 06 2025 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/98332/view

The study describes the use of the Extremum system for simulating near-real-time effects related to the devastating earthquake that struck Morocco on September 8, 2023, as well as the consequences of several scenario events for potentially hazardous source zones in the High Atlas (HA) region. The study’s relevance stems from the need for accurate estimates of potential losses resulting from recent earthquakes to support response decision-making and potential scenario events in the most hazardous zones, as well as to create and conduct early action plans to reduce seismic risk. The calibration of the seismic intensity attenuation models for the Moroccan area using the Extremum system is the aim of this work, too, to investigate the applicability of seismic intensity attenuation equations previously established, for near-real-time loss assessment for strong events and scenario events that could occur in the study area. It is worth pointing out that our work is the first to analyze these equations. We also look into the impact of regional vulnerability functions on typical building stock and earthquake loss simulation outcomes. The study presents the results of a potential source zone identification based on an established catalog. Considering the weighted value, three distinct procedures are employed to calculate the maximum possible magnitudes for these zones. In this context, a comparison of the projected effects for the cities of Targua and Adassil, located in the severely devastated province of Chichaoua, demonstrates a satisfactory match between the observed and expected damage to the infrastructure.

The study describes the use of the Extremum system for simulating near-real-time effects related to the devastating earthquake that struck Morocco on September 8, 2023, as well as the consequences of several scenario events for potentially hazardous source zones in the High Atlas (HA) region. The study’s relevance stems from the need for accurate estimates of potential losses resulting from recent earthquakes to support response decision-making and potential scenario events in the most hazardous zones, as well as to create and conduct early action plans to reduce seismic risk. The calibration of the seismic intensity attenuation models for the Moroccan area using the Extremum system is the aim of this work, too, to investigate the applicability of seismic intensity attenuation equations previously established, for near-real-time loss assessment for strong events and scenario events that could occur in the study area. It is worth pointing out that our work is the first to analyze these equations. We also look into the impact of regional vulnerability functions on typical building stock and earthquake loss simulation outcomes. The study presents the results of a potential source zone identification based on an established catalog. Considering the weighted value, three distinct procedures are employed to calculate the maximum possible magnitudes for these zones. In this context, a comparison of the projected effects for the cities of Targua and Adassil, located in the severely devastated province of Chichaoua, demonstrates a satisfactory match between the observed and expected damage to the infrastructure.

 Near real-time earthquake loss estimation scenario events source zones Extremum information system calibration of macroseismic field models Morocco Near real-time earthquake loss estimation scenario events source zones Extremum information system calibration of macroseismic field models Morocco The article was prepared as part of the State Task of the Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, focused on research work no. 122022400105–9 titled “Forecasting, Modeling, and Monitoring Endogenous and Exogenous Geological Processes to Reduce Their Negative Consequences”; research support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through grant PID2022- 136678NB-I00AEI/FEDER, UE was given. The article was prepared as part of the State Task of the Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, focused on research work no. 122022400105–9 titled “Forecasting, Modeling, and Monitoring Endogenous and Exogenous Geological Processes to Reduce Their Negative Consequences”; research support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through grant PID2022- 136678NB-I00AEI/FEDER, UE was given.

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