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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Russian Journal of Earth Sciences</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Russian Journal of Earth Sciences</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Russian Journal of Earth Sciences</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">1681-1208</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">46493</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.2205/2019ES000695</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>ORIGINAL ARTICLES</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Epidemic type aftershock sequence exponential productivity</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Epidemic type aftershock sequence exponential productivity</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Baranov</surname>
       <given-names>S V</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Baranov</surname>
       <given-names>S V</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Gvishiani</surname>
       <given-names>A D</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Gvishiani</surname>
       <given-names>A D</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Narteau</surname>
       <given-names>C </given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Narteau</surname>
       <given-names>C </given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Shebalin</surname>
       <given-names>P N</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Shebalin</surname>
       <given-names>P N</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>p.n.shebalin@gmail.com</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Kola Branch, Federal Research Center Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Kola Branch, Federal Research Center Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Geophysical Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Geophysical Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-3">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Université de Paris, Institut de physique du globe de Paris</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Université de Paris, Institut de physique du globe de Paris</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-4">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics</institution>
     <country>ru</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <volume>19</volume>
   <issue>6</issue>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2021-10-29T12:47:30+03:00">
     <day>29</day>
     <month>10</month>
     <year>2021</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/46493/view">https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/46493/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Studying the hierarchical structure of the aftershock sequence of the three largest earthquakes of the last decade, we show that the number of offspring events counted in a fixed magnitude band with respect to the magnitude of the parent events follows an exponential distribution. Such an exponential productivity law is coherent with the exponential decays inferred from largest earthquakes worldwide. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) are the most popular stochastic models of seismicity and they are all based on a Poisson distribution of the earthquake productivity with a pronounced non-zero mode. We construct here an alternative model incorporating an exponential productivity law. For the three aftershock sequences. we estimate parameters of both models using aftershocks occuring during the first 2 days. We simulate a set of synthetic earthquake catalogues for both models and compare the average cumulated number of events with respect to time. In all cases, the ETAS model overestimates the number of events in the interval from 2 to 365 days. For the same time period, the exponential ETAS model gives a satisfactory cumulative number of events. We conclude that exponential distribution of the earthquake productivity seems to be an important property of the seismic relaxation process.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>Studying the hierarchical structure of the aftershock sequence of the three largest earthquakes of the last decade, we show that the number of offspring events counted in a fixed magnitude band with respect to the magnitude of the parent events follows an exponential distribution. Such an exponential productivity law is coherent with the exponential decays inferred from largest earthquakes worldwide. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) are the most popular stochastic models of seismicity and they are all based on a Poisson distribution of the earthquake productivity with a pronounced non-zero mode. We construct here an alternative model incorporating an exponential productivity law. For the three aftershock sequences. we estimate parameters of both models using aftershocks occuring during the first 2 days. We simulate a set of synthetic earthquake catalogues for both models and compare the average cumulated number of events with respect to time. In all cases, the ETAS model overestimates the number of events in the interval from 2 to 365 days. For the same time period, the exponential ETAS model gives a satisfactory cumulative number of events. We conclude that exponential distribution of the earthquake productivity seems to be an important property of the seismic relaxation process.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>Strong earthquakes</kwd>
    <kwd>aftershocks</kwd>
    <kwd>productivity</kwd>
    <kwd>ETAS model</kwd>
    <kwd>EP model</kwd>
    <kwd>forecast</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>Strong earthquakes</kwd>
    <kwd>aftershocks</kwd>
    <kwd>productivity</kwd>
    <kwd>ETAS model</kwd>
    <kwd>EP model</kwd>
    <kwd>forecast</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <funding-group>
    <funding-statement xml:lang="en">AG acknowledges financial support from the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences Basic Research Program No. 2, project &quot;Complex physical and mathematical modelling of circumpolar ionosphere and the discrete mathematics techniques in the tasks of digital analysis of geophysical data using supercomputers&quot;. SB developed software for the data analysis with support of Russian Foundation of Basic Researches, project 19-05-00812.</funding-statement>
   </funding-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p></p>
 </body>
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