Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 46540 10.2205/2020ES000721 ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Short-term forecast of the auroral oval position on the basis of the "virtual globe" technology Short-term forecast of the auroral oval position on the basis of the "virtual globe" technology Vorobev A V Vorobev A V Pilipenko V A Pilipenko V A pilipenko va@mail.ru Krasnoperov R I Krasnoperov R I Vorobeva G R Vorobeva G R Lorentzen D A Lorentzen D A Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Ufa State Aviation Technical University ru Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Ufa State Aviation Technical University ru Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Institute of Physics of the Earth ru Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Institute of Physics of the Earth ru Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences ru Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences ru Ufa State Aviation Technical University ru Ufa State Aviation Technical University ru University Centre in Svalbard ru University Centre in Svalbard ru 20 6 29 10 2021 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/46540/view

A nowcasting and even forecast of the auroral oval position and intensity is a highly needed resource for practical applications. The auroral oval is the region with a high level of ionospheric plasma turbulence, which provokes malfunctions of radio communication and navigation satellite systems, and the region with most intense irregular ionospheric electrojet exciting the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in electric power lines. We have elaborated a web service (http://aurora-forecast.ru) for continuous nowcasting, visualization and short-term forecast of auroras. The implementation tool of the developed geographic information system (GIS) is the Django framework. The web service is a software shell built on the basis of a virtual globe - a multi-scale digital 3D model of the Earth, rendering visualization of data provided by the NOAA service on the planetary distribution of the probability of the aurora occurrence. The NOAA service uses the output of the OVATION-prime model, which gives a forecast of auroras in advance of 30 minutes with a 5-minute update step, using real-time data from interplanetary monitors of the solar wind. The developed web-service can be used both to assess the probability of observing auroras anywhere in the world. This service may help to predict the deterioration of the satellite navigation signal quality or warn about possibility of intense GICs at high latitudes.

A nowcasting and even forecast of the auroral oval position and intensity is a highly needed resource for practical applications. The auroral oval is the region with a high level of ionospheric plasma turbulence, which provokes malfunctions of radio communication and navigation satellite systems, and the region with most intense irregular ionospheric electrojet exciting the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in electric power lines. We have elaborated a web service (http://aurora-forecast.ru) for continuous nowcasting, visualization and short-term forecast of auroras. The implementation tool of the developed geographic information system (GIS) is the Django framework. The web service is a software shell built on the basis of a virtual globe - a multi-scale digital 3D model of the Earth, rendering visualization of data provided by the NOAA service on the planetary distribution of the probability of the aurora occurrence. The NOAA service uses the output of the OVATION-prime model, which gives a forecast of auroras in advance of 30 minutes with a 5-minute update step, using real-time data from interplanetary monitors of the solar wind. The developed web-service can be used both to assess the probability of observing auroras anywhere in the world. This service may help to predict the deterioration of the satellite navigation signal quality or warn about possibility of intense GICs at high latitudes.

 Space weather aurora GIS technology auroral oval Space weather aurora GIS technology auroral oval This study was supported by the grant 17-77-20034 from the Russian Science Foundation and the grant ES647692 from the program INTPART of Research Council of Norway (DAL). The model OVATION Prime was developed in Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory by P. Newell and associates, the IDL version is freely available at https://sourceforge. net/projects/ovation-prime.

Bobkov, A. E., A. V. Leonov (2017) , Virtual globe: history and modernity, Scientific Visualization, 9, no. 2, p. 49-63 Bobkov, A. E., A. V. Leonov (2017) , Virtual globe: history and modernity, Scientific Visualization, 9, no. 2, p. 49-63 Akasofu, S. I. (1977) , Physics of Magnetospheric Substorms, Springer Nature, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1164-8 Akasofu, S. I. (1977) , Physics of Magnetospheric Substorms, Springer Nature, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1164-8 Kozyreva, O. V., V. A. Pilipenko, M. J. Engebretson, et al. (2016) , Correspondence between the ULF wave power distribution and auroral oval, Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2, no. 2, p. 46-65, https://doi.org/10.12737/20999 Kozyreva, O. V., V. A. Pilipenko, M. J. Engebretson, et al. (2016) , Correspondence between the ULF wave power distribution and auroral oval, Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2, no. 2, p. 46-65, https://doi.org/10.12737/20999 Kozyreva, O. V., V. A. Pilipenko, V. I. Zakharov, M. J. Engebretson (2017) , GPS-TEC response to the substorm onset, GPS Solutions, 21, no. 3, p. 927-936, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-016-0581-6 Kozyreva, O. V., V. A. Pilipenko, V. I. Zakharov, M. J. Engebretson (2017) , GPS-TEC response to the substorm onset, GPS Solutions, 21, no. 3, p. 927-936, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-016-0581-6 Kozyreva, O. V., V. A. Pilipenko, R. I. Krasnoperov, et al. (2020) , Fine structure of substorm and geomagnetically induced currents, Annals of Geophysics, 63, no. 2, p. GM219, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8198 Kozyreva, O. V., V. A. Pilipenko, R. I. Krasnoperov, et al. (2020) , Fine structure of substorm and geomagnetically induced currents, Annals of Geophysics, 63, no. 2, p. GM219, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8198 Lukianova, R., F. Christiansen (2006) , Modeling of the global distribution of ionospheric electric fields based on realistic maps of field-aligned currents, J. Geophys. Res., 111, p. A03213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011465 Lukianova, R., F. Christiansen (2006) , Modeling of the global distribution of ionospheric electric fields based on realistic maps of field-aligned currents, J. Geophys. Res., 111, p. A03213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011465 Lunyushkin, S. B., Yu. V. Penskikh (2019) , Diagnostics of the boundaries of the auroral oval based on the technique of inversion of magnetograms, Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 5, no. 2, p. 97-113, https://doi.org/10.12737/szf-52201913 Lunyushkin, S. B., Yu. V. Penskikh (2019) , Diagnostics of the boundaries of the auroral oval based on the technique of inversion of magnetograms, Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 5, no. 2, p. 97-113, https://doi.org/10.12737/szf-52201913 Machol, J., J. . Green, R. . Redmon, et al. (2012) , Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae, Space Weather, 10, p. S03005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000746 Machol, J., J. . Green, R. . Redmon, et al. (2012) , Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae, Space Weather, 10, p. S03005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000746 Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, K. Liou, et al. (2007) , A nearly universal solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function inferred from 10 magnetospheric state variables, J. Geophys. Res., 112, p. A01206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JA012015 Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, K. Liou, et al. (2007) , A nearly universal solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function inferred from 10 magnetospheric state variables, J. Geophys. Res., 112, p. A01206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JA012015 Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, S. Wing (2009) , Diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora: The global precipitation budget, J. Geophys. Res., 114, no. A09207, p. 216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014326 Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, S. Wing (2009) , Diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora: The global precipitation budget, J. Geophys. Res., 114, no. A09207, p. 216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014326 Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, S. Wing (2010) , Seasonal variations in diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora, J. Geophys. Res., 115, no. A03216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014805 Newell, P. T., T. Sotirelis, S. Wing (2010) , Seasonal variations in diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora, J. Geophys. Res., 115, no. A03216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014805 Newell, P. T., K. Liou, Y. Zhang, et al. (2014) , OVATION Prime-2013: Extension of auroral precipitation model to higher disturbance levels, Space Weather, 12, p. 368-379, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056 Newell, P. T., K. Liou, Y. Zhang, et al. (2014) , OVATION Prime-2013: Extension of auroral precipitation model to higher disturbance levels, Space Weather, 12, p. 368-379, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056 Sigernes, F., M. Dyrland, P. Brekke, et al. (2011) , Two methods to forecast auroral displays, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 1, no. A03, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2011003 Sigernes, F., M. Dyrland, P. Brekke, et al. (2011) , Two methods to forecast auroral displays, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 1, no. A03, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2011003 Smith, A. M., C. N. Mitchell, R. J. Watson, et al. (2008) , GPS scintillation in the high Arctic associated with an auroral arc, Space Weather, 6, no. 3, p. 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007sw000349 Smith, A. M., C. N. Mitchell, R. J. Watson, et al. (2008) , GPS scintillation in the high Arctic associated with an auroral arc, Space Weather, 6, no. 3, p. 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007sw000349 Sotirelis, T., P. T. Newell (2000) , Boundary-oriented electron precipitation model, J. Geophys. Res., 105, p. 18,655-18,673, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JA000269 Sotirelis, T., P. T. Newell (2000) , Boundary-oriented electron precipitation model, J. Geophys. Res., 105, p. 18,655-18,673, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JA000269 Vorobev, A. V., G. R. Vorobeva (2017a) , Geoinformation system for amplitude-frequency analysis of observation data for geomagnetic variations and space weather, Computer Optics, 41, p. 963-972, https://doi.org/10.18287/2412-6179-2017-41-6-963-972 Vorobev, A. V., G. R. Vorobeva (2017a) , Geoinformation system for amplitude-frequency analysis of observation data for geomagnetic variations and space weather, Computer Optics, 41, p. 963-972, https://doi.org/10.18287/2412-6179-2017-41-6-963-972 Vorobev, A. V., G. R. Vorobeva (2017b) , Web-based 2D/3D visualization of geomagnetic field parameters and its variations, Scientific Visualization, 9, no. 2, p. 94-101 Vorobev, A. V., G. R. Vorobeva (2017b) , Web-based 2D/3D visualization of geomagnetic field parameters and its variations, Scientific Visualization, 9, no. 2, p. 94-101 Vorobjev, V. G., O. I. Yagodkina (2008) , Empirical model of auroral precipitation power during substorms, J. Atm. Solar-Ter. Phys., 70, p. 654-662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2007.08.046 Vorobjev, V. G., O. I. Yagodkina (2008) , Empirical model of auroral precipitation power during substorms, J. Atm. Solar-Ter. Phys., 70, p. 654-662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2007.08.046 Vorobev, A. V., V. A. Pilipenko, A. G. Reshetnikov, et al. (2020) , Web-oriented visualization of auroral oval geophysical parameters, Scientific Visualization, 12.3, p. 108-118, https://doi.org/10.26583/sv.12.3.10 Vorobev, A. V., V. A. Pilipenko, A. G. Reshetnikov, et al. (2020) , Web-oriented visualization of auroral oval geophysical parameters, Scientific Visualization, 12.3, p. 108-118, https://doi.org/10.26583/sv.12.3.10