Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 46954 ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Prediction of extreme events: Fundamentals and prerequisites of verification Prediction of extreme events: Fundamentals and prerequisites of verification Kossobokov V G Kossobokov V G Soloviev A A Soloviev A A International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ru International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ru International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ru International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ru 10 2 1 24 10 11 2021 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/46954/view

In many cases extreme events of different nature induce catastrophic consequences. Therefore, in each case prediction of them is a long-living challenging problem of extremely high stakes. With a break-through in informatics many data relevant to catastrophic extremes became available for intensive search and testing of empirical "precursors'', as well as of conceptual hypotheses, thus, creating a fertile land for pattern recognition technique. Here we present the results of application of the same, perhaps, the simplest methodology to geophysical and socio-economical systems. Specifically, we i demonstrate the achievements of the on-going global monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the great and major earthquakes worldwide, which accommodates more than 15 years of real-time experience, and ii describe in more detail the quantitative experimentation in finding precursors of starts and ends of economic recessions, episodes of a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, and surges of homicides in a mega-city.

In many cases extreme events of different nature induce catastrophic consequences. Therefore, in each case prediction of them is a long-living challenging problem of extremely high stakes. With a break-through in informatics many data relevant to catastrophic extremes became available for intensive search and testing of empirical "precursors'', as well as of conceptual hypotheses, thus, creating a fertile land for pattern recognition technique. Here we present the results of application of the same, perhaps, the simplest methodology to geophysical and socio-economical systems. Specifically, we i demonstrate the achievements of the on-going global monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the great and major earthquakes worldwide, which accommodates more than 15 years of real-time experience, and ii describe in more detail the quantitative experimentation in finding precursors of starts and ends of economic recessions, episodes of a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, and surges of homicides in a mega-city.

 seismology earthquake prediction model and theoretical seismicity. seismology earthquake prediction model and theoretical seismicity.

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