Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 71260 10.2205/2024ES000917 cismvq ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8170-9833 Латонин Михаил Михайлович Latonin Mikhail Mikhailovich m.m.latonin@ifaran.ru

кандидат географических наук;

candidate of geographical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1257-4197 Башмачников Игорь Львович Bashmachnikov Igor L'vovich

кандидат географических наук;

candidate of geographical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8290-5043 Радченко Юлия Владимировна Radchenko Iuliia Vladimirovna https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6792-9709 Гнатюк Наталья Владимировна Gnatiuk Natalia Vladimirovna https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2341-9088 Бобылев Леонид Петрович Bobylev Leonid Petrovich

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6005-7514 Петтерссон Лассе Х. Pettersson Lasse H. Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена Санкт-Петербург Россия Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт физики атмосферы им. А.М. Обухова Российской академии наук Москва Россия A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Russian Federation Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена Санкт-Петербург Россия Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Санкт-Петербург Россия Saint Petersburg State University Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена Санкт-Петербург Россия Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена Санкт-Петербург Россия Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Санкт-Петербург Россия Saint Petersburg State University Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена Санкт-Петербург Россия Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre Saint Petersburg Russian Federation Центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена Берген Норвегия Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen Norway 26 12 2024 26 12 2024 24 4 1 16 26 10 2023 08 07 2024 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/71260/view

Poleward transports of oceanic and atmospheric heat play an essential role in the Arctic climate system, and their variations in the future will strongly shape the climate of the Arctic. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in the historical experiment in simulating the meridional heat fluxes into the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The secondary objective is to estimate the meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes up to the end of the 21st century using the best sub-ensembles of the CMIP6 models. According to our results, the CMIP6 models poorly reproduce the interannual variability of the heat fluxes in their historical simulations, and the multi-model ensemble mean values are systematically lower than the mean values derived from the Ocean ReAnalysis System 4 (ORAS4) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) reanalyses. Climate projections based on the selected CMIP6 models indicate that the future Arctic climate will be characterized by the significantly increased oceanic heat transport at the entrance to the Atlantic sector of the Arctic relative to the period 1958–2014. In contrast, the atmospheric heat and moisture transport will not have dramatic differences in the projected Arctic climate relative to the period 1958–2014. Based on the results obtained, we emphasize that any interpretation of future climate simulations should be done with caution.

Poleward transports of oceanic and atmospheric heat play an essential role in the Arctic climate system, and their variations in the future will strongly shape the climate of the Arctic. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in the historical experiment in simulating the meridional heat fluxes into the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The secondary objective is to estimate the meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes up to the end of the 21st century using the best sub-ensembles of the CMIP6 models. According to our results, the CMIP6 models poorly reproduce the interannual variability of the heat fluxes in their historical simulations, and the multi-model ensemble mean values are systematically lower than the mean values derived from the Ocean ReAnalysis System 4 (ORAS4) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) reanalyses. Climate projections based on the selected CMIP6 models indicate that the future Arctic climate will be characterized by the significantly increased oceanic heat transport at the entrance to the Atlantic sector of the Arctic relative to the period 1958–2014. In contrast, the atmospheric heat and moisture transport will not have dramatic differences in the projected Arctic climate relative to the period 1958–2014. Based on the results obtained, we emphasize that any interpretation of future climate simulations should be done with caution.

 poleward heat transport climate of the Arctic ocean–atmosphere interaction CMIP6 models ORAS4 and ERA5 reanalyses projections North Atlantic poleward heat transport climate of the Arctic ocean–atmosphere interaction CMIP6 models ORAS4 and ERA5 reanalyses projections North Atlantic This study was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF), grant number 23-77-01046 (https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-77-01046/). This study was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF), grant number 23-77-01046 (https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-77-01046/).

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