Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 83876 10.2205/2025ES000942 mqmdjw ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Short-Term High-Resolution Weather Forecasting in the City of Khabarovsk, Russia Краткосрочное прогнозирование метеорологических условий и явлений погоды высокого пространственного разрешения по Хабаровску https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6613-6881 Романский Станислав Олегович Romanskiy Stanislav Olegovich khvstas@gmail.com

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Вербицкая Евгения Митрофановна Verbitskaya Eugenia Mitrofanovna Дальневосточный региональный научно-исследовательский гидрометеорологический институт Россия Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute Russian Federation Дальневосточный региональный научно-исследовательский гидрометеорологический институт Россия Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute Russian Federation 10 03 2025 10 03 2025 25 1 1 13 06 06 2024 15 10 2024 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/83876/view

Представлена экспериментальная система выпуска краткосрочных численных прогнозов погоды (ЧПП) для Хабаровска на основе модели Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) на сетке с шагом 1 км. Особенностями системы является учет в численной модели городской подстилающей поверхности при использовании параметризации single-layer urban canopy model. Городская застройка представлена тремя типами подстилающей поверхности: промышленные зоны, низко- и высокоэтажная застройка. Рассматривается задача интерпретации численных прогнозов высокого пространственно-временного разрешения в крупном населенном пункте. Расчеты на сетке с шагом 1 км по модели WRF показали более высокое качество краткосрочных прогнозов по городу в сравнении с сеткой с шагом 5 км за июнь – декабрь 2023 г. На этом периоде на сетках с шагами 1 км и 5 км осредненная абсолютная ошибка прогноза скорости и направления приземного ветра выше 10 м/c составляет 2,9 м/с и 3,2 м/с, и 14∘ и 32∘ соответственно, для приземной температуры осредненная абсолютная ошибка достигает 1,6∘ и 3,1∘.

Experimental short-term numerical weather prediction system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with grid spacing of 1 km for the city of Khabarovsk, Russia is presented. Single-layer urban canopy parametrization is used in the model runs and takes into consideration urban land use. Urban land surface consists of three types: low-rise, high-rise buildings and industrial zones. Niceties of forecasts’ interpretation in a large city based on data of a high-resolution numerical grid are considered. Simulations of the WRF model with the grid spacing of 1 km have shown better quality of prediction in the city than forecasts on the grid spacing of 5 km for the period of time from June to December of 2023. Mean absolute errors of the forecasting speed and direction of surface wind with a velocity above 10 m/s are 2.9 m/s and 3.2 m/s, and 14∘ and 32∘ and absolute error of the forecasting air temperature is 1.6∘ and 3.1∘ for the WRF model with the grid spacing of 1 and 5 km respectively for the considered period of time.

 численный прогноз погоды мезомасштабный процесс сильные осадки сильный ветер подстилающая поверхность WRF-ARW Хабаровск numerical weather prediction mesoscale process heavy rainfall strong wind land use WRF-ARW Khabarovsk Благодарим рецензентов за ценные советы и замечания к статье. Работа выполнена по внутреннему плану ФГБУ «ДВНИГМИ». We thank the reviewers for valuable advice and comments on the article. The work was carried out according to the internal plan of the Federal State Budgetary Institution Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute.

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