Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 84881 10.2205/2025ES000939 sxagiy ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ Numerical Modeling of the Impact of Natural Tropical Oscillations on the Amplitudes of Atmospheric Tides During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Численное моделирование воздействия естественных тропических осцилляций на амплитуды атмосферных приливов во время внезапного стратосферного потепления https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6446-1808 Коваль Андрей Владиславович Koval' Andrey Vladislavovich a.v.koval@spbu.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9478-8120 Варгин Павел Николаевич Vargin Pavel Nikolaevich https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3944-9433 Гаврилов Николай Михайлович Gavrilov Nikolai Mihaylovich https://orcid.org/0009-0001-7333-0022 Диденко Ксения Андреевна Didenko Kseniia Andreevna https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0808-2226 Ермакова Татьяна Сергеевна Ermakova Tatiana Sergeevna Ефимов Матвей Максимович Efimov Matvey Maksimovich https://orcid.org/0009-0001-6041-1157 Соколов Арсений Викторович Sokolov Arseniy Viktorovich Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет St. Petersburg State University Российский государственный гидрометеорологический университет Россия Russian State Hydrometeorological University Russian Federation Российский государственный гидрометеорологический университет Россия Russian State Hydrometeorological University Russian Federation Центральная Аэрологическая обсерватория Россия Central Aerological Observatory Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Россия St. Petersburg State University Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Россия St. Petersburg State University Russian Federation 4Институт земного магнетизма, ионосферы и распространения радиоволн им. Н. В. Пушкова РАН (ИЗМИРАН) Россия Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation named after N. V. Pushkov RAS (IZMIRAN) Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Россия St. Petersburg State University Russian Federation Российский государственный гидрометеорологический университет Россия Russian State Hydrometeorological University Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Россия St. Petersburg State University Russian Federation Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Россия St. Petersburg State University Russian Federation 28 02 2025 28 02 2025 25 1 1 18 01 07 2024 08 10 2024 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/84881/view

С целью изучения эволюции атмосферных приливов были проведены модельные расчеты общей атмосферной циркуляции с помощью 3-мерной нелинейной механистической модели МСВА. В качестве естественных тропических осцилляций рассматриваются: квазидвухлетнее колебание экваториального зонального ветра (КДК) в стратосфере и Эль-Ниньо Южное колебание (ЭНЮК). Изменения амплитуд приливов анализируются на трех 10-дневных интервалах времени перед, во время и после внезапного стратосферного потепления (ВСП). Рассматриваются композитные ВСП, состоящие из 6 событий, найденных в ансамблях расчетов, для каждой комбинации фаз КДК/ЭНЮК. Исследуются мигрирующие и немигрирующие суточные и полусуточные приливы с зональными волновыми числами, 1 и 2. Численные эксперименты, в частности, показали, что структура приливов восприимчива к воздействию ВСП, при этом во время ВСП амплитуды приливов при разных комбинациях КДК – ЭНЮК меняются по-разному. Например, при Эль-Ниньо и восточной фазе КДК заметно ослабление суточного мигрирующего прилива во время ВСП, а при Ла-Нинья и восточной фазе КДК, наоборот, амплитуда суточного прилива усиливается во время события, а после ВСП – ослабляется. Анализ численных экспериментов подтверждает существующие представления о существенной изменчивости приливов во время ВСП и демонстрирует важнейший источник этой изменчивости, связанный с комбинациями динамического воздействия КДК – ЭНЮК.

In order to study the evolution of atmospheric tides, model simulations of the general atmospheric circulation were carried out using a 3-dimensional nonlinear mechanistic model “MUAM”. The following are considered as natural tropical oscillations: the quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind (QBO) in the stratosphere and the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Changes in tidal amplitudes are analyzed at three 10-day time intervals before, during and after a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Composite SSWs consisting of 6 events within the calculation ensembles are considered for each QBO/ENSO combination. Migrating and non-migrating diurnal and semi-diurnal tides with zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 are studied. Numerical experiments have shown in particular, that the structure of tides is susceptible to the effects of SSW, while during SSWs the amplitudes of tides for different combinations of QBO – ENSO change differently. For example, during El Ni˜no and the easterly QBO phase, there is a noticeable weakening of the diurnal migrating tide during the SSW, while during La Ni˜na and the easterly QBO phase, on the contrary, the amplitude of the diurnal tide increases during the event, and after the SSW it weakens. Analysis of numerical experiments confirms existing ideas about significant variability of tides during SSW and demonstrates the most important source of this variability associated with combinations of QBO-ENSO dynamic effects.

 динамика атмосферы атмосферные приливы тропические осцилляции внезапное стратосферное потепление Atmospheric dynamics atmospheric tides tropical oscillations sudden stratospheric warming Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 24-17-00230, https://rscf.ru/project/24-17-00230/. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-17-00230, https://rscf.ru/project/24-17-00230/.

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