Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 1681-1208 88584 10.2205/2025ES001005 tlqnxx ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ ORIGINAL ARTICLES ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ The Ob River Water and Sediment Runoff Under Changing Climate Conditions The Ob River Water and Sediment Runoff Under Changing Climate Conditions https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2393-0070 Шмакова Марина В. Shmakova Marina V. Институт Озероведения РАН Россия Institute of Limnology RAS Russian Federation 24 09 2025 24 09 2025 25 5 ES5007 12 09 2024 03 03 2025 https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/88584/view

Changes in the Ob River sediment runoff caused by current climatic and socio-economic changes in Russian Federation have a multidirectional character in the middle and lower courses of the watercourse. According to meteorological observations, the air temperature in the studied region increased by 2 °C, and annual precipitation layers by more than 80 mm/yr, while the area of agricultural land in the middle reaches of the river decreased by 40% compared to the period before 1990. A decrease in acreage in the catchment area of the middle stream caused a three-fold decrease in sediment runoff during the high water period, while the activation of thermal erosion processes in the lower reaches led to a two-fold increase in sediment runoff during the same period. As a result of water and sediment runoff modeling according to climate forecasts, it was found that by the end of the 21st century, the average annual water runoff of the Ob River for the RCP 2.6 scenario increases by 20% relative to the period 1991–2020, while sediment runoff almost does not change. At the same time, the RCP 8.5 scenario provides a decrease in water and sediment runoff.

Changes in the Ob River sediment runoff caused by current climatic and socio-economic changes in Russian Federation have a multidirectional character in the middle and lower courses of the watercourse. According to meteorological observations, the air temperature in the studied region increased by 2 °C, and annual precipitation layers by more than 80 mm/yr, while the area of agricultural land in the middle reaches of the river decreased by 40% compared to the period before 1990. A decrease in acreage in the catchment area of the middle stream caused a three-fold decrease in sediment runoff during the high water period, while the activation of thermal erosion processes in the lower reaches led to a two-fold increase in sediment runoff during the same period. As a result of water and sediment runoff modeling according to climate forecasts, it was found that by the end of the 21st century, the average annual water runoff of the Ob River for the RCP 2.6 scenario increases by 20% relative to the period 1991–2020, while sediment runoff almost does not change. At the same time, the RCP 8.5 scenario provides a decrease in water and sediment runoff.

 watercourse sediment runoff Arctic climate change anthropogenic influence thermal erosion forecast watercourse sediment runoff Arctic climate change anthropogenic influence thermal erosion forecast This research was done within the framework of the State assignment of the Institute of Limnology RAS on topic FFZF-2024-0002. This research was done within the framework of the State assignment of the Institute of Limnology RAS on topic FFZF-2024-0002.

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