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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Russian Journal of Earth Sciences</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Russian Journal of Earth Sciences</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Russian Journal of Earth Sciences</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">1681-1208</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">90389</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.2205/2025ES000997</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="edn">wmihfi</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>ORIGINAL ARTICLES</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Approach to Hardwareless Assessment of the Geoinduced Currents Level in High-latitude Power Electric Systems</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Approach to Hardwareless Assessment of the Geoinduced Currents Level in High-latitude Power Electric Systems</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9680-5609</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Воробьев</surname>
       <given-names>Андрей Владимирович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Vorobev</surname>
       <given-names>Andrey Vladimirovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>geomagnet@list.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор технических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of technical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6476-9471</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Соловьев</surname>
       <given-names>Анатолий Александрович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Soloviev</surname>
       <given-names>Anatoly Aleksandrovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>a.soloviev@gcras.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор физико-математических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7878-9724</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Воробьева</surname>
       <given-names>Гульнара Равилевна</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Vorob'eva</surname>
       <given-names>Gul'nara Ravilevna</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-5"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Уфимский университет науки и технологий</institution>
     <city>Уфа</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Ufa University of Science and Technology</institution>
     <city>Ufa</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Геофизический центр Российской Академии Наук</institution>
     <country>RU</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
     <country>RU</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-3">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Геофизический центр РАН</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Geophysical Center RAS</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-4">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Институт физики Земли им. О. Ю. Шмидта РАН</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-5">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Уфимский университет науки и технологий</institution>
     <city>Уфа</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Ufa University of Science and Technology</institution>
     <city>Ufa</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-08-08T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>08</day>
    <month>08</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-08-08T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>08</day>
    <month>08</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>25</volume>
   <issue>5</issue>
   <elocation-id>ES5001</elocation-id>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-05-12T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>12</day>
     <month>05</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2025-06-10T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>10</day>
     <month>06</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/90389/view">https://rjes.ru/en/nauka/article/90389/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>The development and implementation of new correlation-statistical models for the operational assessment of technospheric risks arising from the impact of space weather on power electric systems operating within the boundaries of the auroral oval is currently an urgent research problem with a pronounced applied nature. Such models demonstrate the highest practical significance in polar subregions with a low density of coverage by reliable and credible sources of geomagnetic data (Taimyr Peninsula, Gydan Peninsula, northern regions of Yakutia, etc.), i.e., in fact, the overwhelming territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Thus, the paper is concerned with a new approach, which is proposed to the non-hardware assessment of the level of geoinduced currents (GIC) in the power electric systems of the AZRF, which is based on correlation-statistical modeling of the GIC level according to the observation of auroras as an accessible natural indicator of space weather state. Using the example of the Vykhodnoy substation of the Northern Transit main power grid, it is shown that when registering auroras in the north, at the zenith, and in the south, the probable (averaged over 30 min) GIC levels are ~0.08 A, ~0.23 A, and ~0.68 A, respectively. At the same time, the probability of exceeding the average half-hour GIC levels of 2 A (in the case of auroras in the north, at the zenith, and in the south) are ~6%, ~10%, and ~15%, respectively.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The development and implementation of new correlation-statistical models for the operational assessment of technospheric risks arising from the impact of space weather on power electric systems operating within the boundaries of the auroral oval is currently an urgent research problem with a pronounced applied nature. Such models demonstrate the highest practical significance in polar subregions with a low density of coverage by reliable and credible sources of geomagnetic data (Taimyr Peninsula, Gydan Peninsula, northern regions of Yakutia, etc.), i.e., in fact, the overwhelming territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Thus, the paper is concerned with a new approach, which is proposed to the non-hardware assessment of the level of geoinduced currents (GIC) in the power electric systems of the AZRF, which is based on correlation-statistical modeling of the GIC level according to the observation of auroras as an accessible natural indicator of space weather state. Using the example of the Vykhodnoy substation of the Northern Transit main power grid, it is shown that when registering auroras in the north, at the zenith, and in the south, the probable (averaged over 30 min) GIC levels are ~0.08 A, ~0.23 A, and ~0.68 A, respectively. At the same time, the probability of exceeding the average half-hour GIC levels of 2 A (in the case of auroras in the north, at the zenith, and in the south) are ~6%, ~10%, and ~15%, respectively.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>geoinduced currents</kwd>
    <kwd>auroras</kwd>
    <kwd>geomagnetic variations</kwd>
    <kwd>space weather</kwd>
    <kwd>high-latitude power electric systems</kwd>
    <kwd>statistical models.</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>geoinduced currents</kwd>
    <kwd>auroras</kwd>
    <kwd>geomagnetic variations</kwd>
    <kwd>space weather</kwd>
    <kwd>high-latitude power electric systems</kwd>
    <kwd>statistical models.</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <funding-group>
    <funding-statement xml:lang="ru">The authors express their gratitude to the Polar Geophysical Institute (PGI) for the provided data on the observation of auroras by the Lovozero observatory, as well as to the PGI and the Center for Physical and Technical Problems of Northern Energy of the Kola Science Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the data on GIC recorded at the Vykhodnoy station. This research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 21-77-30010-P).</funding-statement>
    <funding-statement xml:lang="en">The authors express their gratitude to the Polar Geophysical Institute (PGI) for the provided data on the observation of auroras by the Lovozero observatory, as well as to the PGI and the Center for Physical and Technical Problems of Northern Energy of the Kola Science Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the data on GIC recorded at the Vykhodnoy station. This research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 21-77-30010-P).</funding-statement>
   </funding-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
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