PREDICTION OF EXTREME EVENTS: FUNDAMENTALS AND PREREQUISITES OF VERIFICATION
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
In many cases extreme events of different nature induce catastrophic consequences. Therefore, in each case prediction of them is a long-living challenging problem of extremely high stakes. With a break-through in informatics many data relevant to catastrophic extremes became available for intensive search and testing of empirical "precursors'', as well as of conceptual hypotheses, thus, creating a fertile land for pattern recognition technique. Here we present the results of application of the same, perhaps, the simplest methodology to geophysical and socio-economical systems. Specifically, we i demonstrate the achievements of the on-going global monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the great and major earthquakes worldwide, which accommodates more than 15 years of real-time experience, and ii describe in more detail the quantitative experimentation in finding precursors of starts and ends of economic recessions, episodes of a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, and surges of homicides in a mega-city.

Keywords:
seismology, earthquake prediction, model and theoretical seismicity.
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