Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
A feature indicative of non-equilibrium dynamic system is a fulfillment of a power law of distribution. We consider a number of simple models of generation of power-law distributions in seismic processes and in the processes of mineral deposits formation. As for seismicity, it is shown that deterministic earthquake prediction does not appear to be possible within the used model, whereas a probabilistic prognosis is feasible. Thus it seems possible to reconcile the well-known theoretical concept of unpredictability of earthquakes with the actual existence of algorithms realizing a non-trivial prognosis of strong earthquakes. As for processes of mineral deposits formation, models are discussed that permit to explain a generation of a power-law distribution of a number of large hydrocarbon and ore deposits from the stock values. A new interpretation is proposed of relatively less than could be expected from the extrapolation of a power distribution law number of deposits with relatively smaller stock values.

Power laws, dynamic systems, earthquake prognosis, deposit size distribution.
Publication text (PDF): Read Download

1. Arnold, Priroda, no. 4, 1998.

2. Bak, Phys. Rev. Lett., v. 59, no. 4, 1987., doi:

3. Bak, Phys. Rev. A., v. 38, 1988., doi:

4. Burshtein, Geologia i geofizika, v. 47, no. 9, 2006.

5. Czechowski, Geophys. J. Int., v. 144, 2001., doi:

6. Czechowski, Geophys. J. Int., v. 154, 2003., doi:

7. Dubois, Dynamic Systems and Dynamic Classification Problems in Geophysical Applications, 1998.

8. Embrechts, Modelling Extremal Events, 1997.

9. Frolov, Carbonatite and Kimberlite, 2005.

10. Geller, Science, v. 275, 1997., doi:

11. Golitsyn, Vychislitelnaya Seismologia, v. 32, 2001.

12. Grigorian, DAN SSSR, v. 299, no. 6, 1988.

13. Gvishiani, Artificial Intelligence and Dynamic Systems for Geophysical Applications, 2002.

14. Gvishiani, Dynamic Tasks of Classification and Convex Programming in Applications, 1992.

15. Ito, J. Geophys. Res., v. 95, 1990., doi:

16. Klimontovich, Statistical Theory of Open Systems, 1995.

17. Kontorovich, Geologia i Geofizika, no. 11, 1985.

18. Kosobokov, Vychislitelnaya Seismologia, v. 36, no. 1, 2005.

19. Laverov, Large and Super-Large Mineral Deposits, Location Regularities and Conditions of Formation, 2004.

20. Laverov, Largest Mineral Deposits of the World, 2006.

21. Ma, Modern Theory of Critical Phenomena, 1980.

22. Mandelbrot, The Fractal Geometry of Nature, 1982.

23. Muslimov, Natural Science Series, v. 147, no. 1, 2005.

24. Muslimov, Hydrocarbon Potential of the Basement of Young and Ancient Platforms, 2006.

25. Pisarenko, Vychislitelnaya Seismologia, issue 38, 2007.

26. Rodkin, Geoecologia, no. 4, 2001.

27. Rodkin, Towards the Creation of the General Theory of Oil and Gas Presence in the Earth's Interior, Book 2, 2002.

28. Rodkin, Alternative to the Criticality Hypothesis? XXVIII General Assembly of ESC, CD-ROM compilation of full papers, 1-6 September, 2002.

29. Rodkin, The Genesis of Hydrocarbon Fluids and Deposits, 2006.

30. Romaniuk, Large and Super-Large Useful Mineral Ore Deposits, Global Regularities of Location, vol. 1, 2007.

31. Rundle, Pure Appl. Geophys., v. 157, 2000., doi:

32. Sadovskiy, Discrete Characteristics of Geophysical Environment, 1989.

33. Shebalin, Vychislitelnaya Seismologia, v. 37, 2006.

34. Sobolev, Principles of Earthquake Prediction, 1993.

35. Sobolev, Earthquake Physics and Precursors, 2003.

36. Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences, 2000.

37. Sornette, Geophys. Res. Lett., v. 30, no. 3, 2003., doi:

38. Turcotte, Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 1997.

39. Tyupkin, Fizika Zemli, no. 8, 2002.

40. Tyupkin, Tectonophysics, v. 431, no. 1--4, 2007., doi:

41. Tyupkin, EPSL, v. 230, 2005., doi:

42. Wyss, Science, v. 278, 1997., doi:

43. Zaliapin, Computation Seismology, v. 33, 2002.

44. Zavialov, Middle-Term Prediction of Earthquakes, Principles, Methods, Realization, 2006.

45. Zotov, Transmagmatic Fluids in Magmatism and Ore Formation, 1989.

Login or Create
* Forgot password?