employee from 01.01.2018 until now
Saint Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Saint Petersburg State University (Associate Professor)
Saint Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
employee
Russian Federation
employee
Saint Petersburg State University
employee
Russian Federation
Saint Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
employee
Russian Federation
UDK 551.5 Метеорология. Климатология
UDK 55 Геология. Геологические и геофизические науки
UDK 550.34 Сейсмология
UDK 550.383 Главное магнитное поле Земли
GRNTI 37.21 Метеорология
GRNTI 37.23 Климатология
GRNTI 37.25 Океанология
GRNTI 37.01 Общие вопросы геофизики
GRNTI 37.15 Геомагнетизм и высокие слои атмосферы
GRNTI 37.31 Физика Земли
GRNTI 38.01 Общие вопросы геологии
GRNTI 36.00 ГЕОДЕЗИЯ. КАРТОГРАФИЯ
GRNTI 37.00 ГЕОФИЗИКА
GRNTI 38.00 ГЕОЛОГИЯ
GRNTI 39.00 ГЕОГРАФИЯ
GRNTI 52.00 ГОРНОЕ ДЕЛО
OKSO 05.02.03 Метеорология
OKSO 05.06.01 Науки о Земле
BBK 26 Науки о Земле
TBK 6326 Физика атмосферы
TBK 6325 Гидрофизика. Гидрология
TBK 63 Науки о Земле. Экология
BISAC SCI SCIENCE
Poleward transports of oceanic and atmospheric heat play an essential role in the Arctic climate system, and their variations in the future will strongly shape the climate of the Arctic. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in the historical experiment in simulating the meridional heat fluxes into the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The secondary objective is to estimate the meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes up to the end of the 21st century using the best sub-ensembles of the CMIP6 models. According to our results, the CMIP6 models poorly reproduce the interannual variability of the heat fluxes in their historical simulations, and the multi-model ensemble mean values are systematically lower than the mean values derived from the Ocean ReAnalysis System 4 (ORAS4) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) reanalyses. Climate projections based on the selected CMIP6 models indicate that the future Arctic climate will be characterized by the significantly increased oceanic heat transport at the entrance to the Atlantic sector of the Arctic relative to the period 1958–2014. In contrast, the atmospheric heat and moisture transport will not have dramatic differences in the projected Arctic climate relative to the period 1958–2014. Based on the results obtained, we emphasize that any interpretation of future climate simulations should be done with caution.
poleward heat transport, climate of the Arctic, ocean–atmosphere interaction, CMIP6 models, ORAS4 and ERA5 reanalyses, projections, North Atlantic
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