Scientific understanding of lithosphere dynamics, earthquake occurrence, volcanic eruption, lava flow and other geohazards events as well as geophysical hazard assessments are greatly advanced for the last several decades. Meanwhile despite these major advancements, yet we are not seeing significant disaster risk reduction and a concomitant decline in disaster impacts and losses. There are at least two major issues that should be improved before significant reduction in disaster losses: enhancing geohazards research and integrating it into disaster risk analysis and risk assessment, and convolving the research with policymaking. This paper, presented at the international conference ``Data Intensive System Analysis for Geohazard Studies'' (Sochi, Russia, 2016), highlights the importance of geohazards studies as a contribution to integrated research on disaster risk. To improve hazard assessments, I present here (i) an alternative approach to the seismic hazard analysis involving information on recorded, historic and simulated earthquakes as well as (ii) advanced quantitative modeling of lava flows due to effusive volcanic eruptions. Risk assessment efforts toward a reduction of disasters are then discussed in the framework of system analysis approach.
geological hazards, geohazards, hazard assessment, risk, earthquake, lava flow, modeling, mathematical geophysics
1. Babayev, G., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Le Mouël, J.-L. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan), // Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences, 2010. - v. 10 - p. 2697.
2. Cornell, C. A. Engineering seismic risk analysis, // Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1968. - v. 58 - p. 1583.
3. Costa, A., Macedonio, G. Numerical simulation of lava flows based on depth-averaged equations, // Geophysical Research Letters, 2005. - v. 32 - p. 1583.
4. Cutter, S., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Alcántara-Ayala, I., et al. Pool knowledge to stem losses from disasters, // Nature, 2015. - v. 522 - p. 277.
5. Dietterich, H. R., Cashman, K. V., Rust, A. C., Lev, E. Diverting lava flows in the lab, // Nature Geoscience, 2015. - v. 8 - p. 494.
6. Fujita, E., Hidaka, M., Goto, A., Umino, S. Simulations of measures to control lava flows, // Bulletin of Volcanology, 2009. - v. 71 - p. 401.
7. Gabrielov, A. M., Levshina, T. A., Rotwain, I. M. Block model of earthquake sequence, // Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1990. - v. 61 - p. 18.
8. Giardini, D., Grünthal, G., Shedlock, K. M., Zhang, P. The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map, // Annali di Geofisica, 1999. - v. 42 - p. 1225.
9. Green, H. W. II, Burnley, P. C. A new self-organizing mechanism for deep-focus earthquakes, // Nature, 1989. - v. 341 - p. 733.
10. Griffiths, R. W. The dynamics of lava flows, // Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 2000. - v. 32 - p. 477.
11. Griggs, D. T., Baker, D. W. The origin of deep-focus earthquakes // Properties of Matter Under Unusual Conditions (eds. H. Mark and S. Fernbach) - New York: Wiley., 1969. - p. 23.
12. Gvishiani, A. D., Agayan, S. M., Dobrovolsky, M. N., Dzeboev, B. A. Objective classification of the epicenters and recognition of the earthquake-prone areas in California, // Geoinformatika, 2013. - v. 2 - p. 44.
13. Hess, H. History of ocean basins // Petrologic Studies (eds. A. Engeln, H. L. James, and B. F. Leonard) - New York: Geological Society of America., 1962. - p. 599.
14. Ismail-Zadeh, A., Panza, G. F., Naimark, B. M. Stress in the descending relic slab beneath Vrancea, Romania, // Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2000. - v. 157 - p. 111.
15. Ismail-Zadeh, A., Takeuchi, K. Preventive disaster management of extreme natural events, // Natural Hazards, 2007a. - v. 42 - p. 459.
16. Ismail-Zadeh, A. T., Le Mouél, J. L., Soloviev, A., Tapponnier, P., Vorobieva, I. Numerical modeling of crustal block-and-fault dynamics, earthquakes and slip rates in the Tibet-Himalayan region, // Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2007b. - v. 258 - p. 465.
17. Ismail-Zadeh, A., Le Mouél, J.-L., Soloviev, A. Modeling of extreme seismic events // Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective (eds. S. A. Sharma, A. Bunde, V. P. Dimri, and D. N. Baker), Geophysical Monograph 196 - Washington, D. C.: American Geophysical Union., 2012a. - p. 75.
18. Ismail-Zadeh, A., Matenco, L., Radulian, M., Cloetingh, S., Panza, G. Geodynamic and intermediate-depth seismicity in Vrancea (the south-eastern Carpathians): Current state-of-the-art, // Tectonophysics, 2012b. - v. 530-531 - p. 50.
19. Ismail-Zadeh, A. Extreme seismic events: from basic science to disaster risk mitigation // Extreme Natural Events, Disaster Risks and Societal Implications (eds. A. Ismail-Zadeh, J. Fucugauchi, A. Kijko, K. Takeuchi, and I. Zaliapin) - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press., 2014. - p. 47.
20. Ismail-Zadeh, A., Kovtunov, D., Korotkii, A., Melnik, O., Tsepelev, I. Physical characteristics of a lava flow determined from thermal measurements at the lava's surface, // Doklady Earth Sciences, 2016. - v. 467 - p. 367.
21. Kantorovich, L., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Molchan, G. Seismic risk and principles of seismic zoning // Computational and Statistical Methods for Interpretation of Seismic Data (ed. V. I. Keilis-Borok) - Moscow: Nauka., 1973. - p. 3.
22. Korotkii, A., Kovtunov, D., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Tsepelev, I., Melnik, O. Quantitative reconstruction of thermal and dynamic characteristics of lava from surface thermal measurements, // Geophysical Journal International, 2016. - v. 205 - p. 1767.
23. Oppenheimer, C. Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815, // Progress in Physical Geography, 2003. - v. 27 - p. 230.
24. Panza, G. F., Irikura, K., Kouteva, M., Peresan, A., Wang, Z., Saragoni, R. Advanced seismic hazard assessment, // Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2010. - v. 168 - p. 1.
25. Sokolov, V., Ismail-Zadeh, A. Seismic hazard from instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes: Application to the Tibet-Himalayan region, // Tectonophysics, 2015. - v. 657 - p. 187.
26. Sokolov, V., Ismail-Zadeh, A. On the use of multiple-site estimations in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, // Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016. - v. 106(5) - p. BSSA Early Edition/1.
27. Soloviev, A. A., Ismail-Zadeh, A. T. Models of dynamics of block-and-fault systems // Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction (eds. V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev) - Heidelberg: Springer., 2003. - p. 69.
28. Soloviev, A. A., Gvishiani, A. D, Gorshkov, A. I., Dobrovolsky, M. N., Novikova, O. V. Recognition of earthquake-prone areas: Methodology and analysis of the results, // Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2014. - v. 50 - p. 69.
29. Stein, S., Geller, R., Liu, M. Bad assumptions or bad luck: why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing, // Seismological Research Letters, 2011. - v. 82 - p. 623.
30. Stokols, D. Toward a science of transdisciplinary action research, // American Journal of Community Psychology, 2006. - v. 38 - p. 63.
31. Tsepelev, I., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Melnik, O., Korotkii, Numerical modelling of fluid flow with rafts: An application to lava flows, // Journal of Geodynamics, 2016. - v. 97 - p. 31.
32. Wyss, M., Nekraskova, A., Kossobokov, V. Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates, // Natural Hazards, 2012. - v. 62 - p. 927.