MAP OF EXPECTED EARTHQUAKES ALGORITHM AND RTL PROGNOSTIC PARAMETER: JOINT APPLICATION
Рубрики: ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ
Авторы:
1.
Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
2.
Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
3.
National Geophysical Committee of Russian Federation, Moscow
Тип:
Статья
Страницы:
с 301
по 309
Статус:
Опубликован
Получено:
25.02.1999
Одобрено:
25.02.1999
Опубликовано:
25.02.1999
Язык материала:
английский
Ключевые слова:
RTL prognostic parameter, expected earthquakes, seismically dangerous zones, seismic precursors.
Аннотация (русский):
The estimation of the seismically dangerous zones of Kamchatka and Greece for the nearest years is given in this report on the basis of joint application of MEE Map of expected earthquakes algorithm and of RTL prognostic parameter. MEE algorithm is based on the analysis of such precursors as b -value, density of seismogenic faults, number of weak earthquakes, released seismic energy and is used for intermediate-term prediction of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Many year's statistics of using MEE algorithm in various seismically active areas show that up to 80% of M > 5.5 earthquakes occur in the zones selected by this algorithm with the PD1|K =70% conditional probability. The square of the selected zones is no more than 30-35% of the analyzed seismically active area. On the other hand the algorithm RTL is based on detecting of seismic quiescence and foreshock activation and is used for intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquake M > 7. Joint application of these two algorithms allows making a prediction of strong earthquakes more reliable.
The estimation of the seismically dangerous zones of Kamchatka and Greece for the nearest years is given in this report on the basis of joint application of MEE Map of expected earthquakes algorithm and of RTL prognostic parameter. MEE algorithm is based on the analysis of such precursors as b -value, density of seismogenic faults, number of weak earthquakes, released seismic energy and is used for intermediate-term prediction of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Many year's statistics of using MEE algorithm in various seismically active areas show that up to 80% of M > 5.5 earthquakes occur in the zones selected by this algorithm with the PD1|K =70% conditional probability. The square of the selected zones is no more than 30-35% of the analyzed seismically active area. On the other hand the algorithm RTL is based on detecting of seismic quiescence and foreshock activation and is used for intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquake M > 7. Joint application of these two algorithms allows making a prediction of strong earthquakes more reliable.
Ключевые слова:
RTL prognostic parameter, expected earthquakes, seismically dangerous zones, seismic precursors.
RTL prognostic parameter, expected earthquakes, seismically dangerous zones, seismic precursors.
