Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake

Владимирова Ирина Сергеевна; Воробьева Инесса Анатольевна; Крушельницкий Кирилл Валерьевич; Стеблов Г. М.; Шебалин Петр Николаевич

doi:10.2205/2026es001114

ВАК 1.6.9 УДК 55 ГРНТИ 37.31 ОКСО 05.06.01 ББК 26 ТБК 6323 BISAC SCI082000 ВАК 1.6 УДК 550.34 УДК 550.383 ГРНТИ 37.01 ГРНТИ 37.15 ГРНТИ 37.25 ГРНТИ 38.01 ГРНТИ 36.00 ГРНТИ 37.00 ГРНТИ 38.00 ГРНТИ 39.00 ГРНТИ 52.00 ТБК 63 BISAC SCI

Ещё 21 Свернуть

BUILT-UP STRAIN AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE JULY 29(30), 2025 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake

АА Аа

Опубликовано в Russian Journal of Earth Sciences · Том 26, Номер 2 · Номер статьи: ES2004 · Рубрика: KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001114 · EDN: TSREMA

Получено: 02.02.2026 Одобрено: 25.05.2026 Опубликовано: 01.07.2026 Язык публикаций: ENG

Авторы

ВЛ

Владимирова Ирина Сергеевна

ORCID Scopus ResearcherID SPIN

ВО

Воробьева Инесса Анатольевна

ORCID

КР

Крушельницкий Кирилл Валерьевич

ORCID SPIN

СТ

Стеблов Г. М.

ORCID

и др.

ШЕ

Шебалин Петр Николаевич

ORCID Scopus SPIN

ВЛ

Владимирова Ирина Сергеевна

Ученая степень: кандидат физико-математических наук

Институт теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики Российской академии наук Ведущий научный сотрудник · лаборатория №4 · Россия · Москва

Институт океанологии им. П.П. Ширшова РАН старший научный сотрудник · Лаборатория цунами им. С.Л. Соловьева · Россия · Москва

ORCID Scopus ResearcherID SPIN

ВО

Воробьева Инесса Анатольевна

Институт теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики РАН ведущий научный сотрудник · Лаборатория теории прогноза землетрясений и георисков · Россия · Москва

ORCID

КР

Крушельницкий Кирилл Валерьевич

Институт теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики РАН Младший научный сотрудник · Лаборатория теории прогноза землетрясений и георисков · Россия · Москва

Московский государственный университет имени М.В.Ломоносова студент · Физический факультет, кафедра физики Земли · Москва

ORCID SPIN

СТ

Стеблов Г. М.

Институт физики Земли им. О.Ю. Шмидта Российской академии наук Россия

Институт теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики Российской академии наук Россия

ORCID

ШЕ

Шебалин Петр Николаевич

Ученая степень: доктор физико-математических наук

Ученое звание: член-корреспондент author.academy_titles.32

Институт теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики Российской академии наук (ИТПЗ РАН) Россия

Геофизический центр Российской академии наук Россия

ORCID Scopus SPIN

АННОТАЦИЯ

The July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka earthquake occurred only 73 years after the major November 4, 1952 event in the same subduction zone, highlighting the relatively short interval between two large ruptures in this segment. The 2025 earthquake (MW 8.8) ruptured approximately 480 km of the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench, generating a moderate tsunami with maximum recorded wave heights of ~4–5 m, smaller than expected for an event of this magnitude. Based on synthetic earthquake catalogs generated using stochastic modeling of background seismicity and ETAS-type aftershock sequences, the most likely location and depth of a future earthquake with MW ≥ 7.7 were identified as early as October 2024 in this region. Moreover, our prior calculations of accumulated seismogenic potential in this segment of the subduction zone, based on 28 years of continuous GNSS observations, indicated that an earthquake of this magnitude was indeed possible. GNSS-derived estimates of accumulated elastic strain indicate that the July 29(30), 2025 mainshock released the majority of the stored seismogenic potential, while large September 13 and 18, 2025 aftershocks likely redistributed stress along the subduction interface, partially releasing previously accumulated strain. Estimates of remaining seismogenic potential suggest that areas north of the 2025 rupture remain capable of producing large earthquakes (MW ≈ 8), emphasizing the importance of continuous geodetic and seismic monitoring, and demonstrating that combining long-term probabilistic seismic modeling with GNSS-based strain measurements can improve the anticipation of large earthquakes.

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА

Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone, 2025 Kamchatka megathrust earthquake, earthquake forecasting, probabilistic seismic modeling, interplate coupling, seismogenic potential, numerical modeling, GNSS

Финансирование

The work was carried out within the framework of the State Assignment of the IETP RAS (theme No. FMWW-2024-0006 and theme No. FMWW-2024-0010 in the field of “Volcanology and Seismology of Kamchatka,” as part of the integrated interagency program for the study and development of the unique territory of the Kamchatka krai “Third Kamchatka Expedition”), as well as within the framework of the State Assignment of the IO RAS (theme No. FMWE-2024-0018) and the State Assignment of the GC RAS. We express our sincere gratitude to Inessa A. Vorobieva (PhD in Physics and Mathematics, Leading Researcher, Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences) for her valuable contribution to this study. In memoriam: Inessa A. Vorobieva (1960–2026). Her research spanned geophysics, seismology, and geodynamics. She passed away on February 23, 2026.

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ГОСТ

Владимирова И. С., Воробьева И. А., Крушельницкий К. В., Стеблов Г. М., Шебалин П. Н. Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake // Russian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2025. № 2. ES2004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001114. EDN: TSREMA. (дата обращения: 19.10.2026).

MLA

Владимирова Ирина Сергеевна, Воробьева И. А., Крушельницкий К. В., Стеблов Г. М., Шебалин П. Н.. "Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake." Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 26.2 (2025): ES2004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001114. EDN: TSREMA.

APA

Владимирова И. С., Воробьева И. А., Крушельницкий К. В., Стеблов Г. М., Шебалин П. Н. (2025). Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake. Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 26(2), ES2004. https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001114 EDN: TSREMA.

Chicago

Владимирова Ирина Сергеевна, Воробьева И. А., Крушельницкий К. В., Стеблов Г. М., Шебалин П. Н.. "Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake." Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 26, no. 2 (2025): ES2004. https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001114. EDN: TSREMA.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Владимирова И. С., Воробьева И. А., Крушельницкий К. В., Стеблов Г. М., Шебалин П. Н. | title = Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake | journal = Russian Journal of Earth Sciences | year = 2025 | volume = 26 | issue = 2 | pages = ES2004 | doi = 10.2205/2026es001114 }} EDN: TSREMA

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BUILT-UP STRAIN AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE JULY 29(30), 2025 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE Built-Up Strain and the Predictability of the July 29(30), 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake

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