Lomonosov Moscow State University (Department of Oceanology, senior researcher)
employee
P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation
Moscow, Russian Federation
student from 01.09.2018 to 31.08.2022
Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation
employee
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Moscow, Russian Federation
employee
Moscow, Russian Federation
employee
Moscow, Russian Federation
employee
Bursa, Turkey
GRNTI 37.01 Общие вопросы геофизики
GRNTI 37.15 Геомагнетизм и высокие слои атмосферы
GRNTI 37.25 Океанология
GRNTI 37.31 Физика Земли
GRNTI 38.01 Общие вопросы геологии
BISAC SCI SCIENCE
The main motivation of this research is to assess the trends of storm recurrence for the time period from 1979 up to 2020 and to analyze the connection between storminess and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices. This research contains information about the number of storms that occurred in seven Russian Seas, including the Black, Caspian, Barents, Kara, Bering Seas, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan/East Sea. The analysis of wave climate and storm activity is based on the results of wave modeling by WAVEWATCH III with input NCEP/CFSR wind and ice data. The long-term significant wave height (SWH) maximum is 15.5 m in the Sea of Okhotsk and 16.5 m in the Bering Sea. Significant linear basin-wide positive trends in the number of storms were found in the Kara, Caspian, Bering, Okhotsk Seas, and in the Sea of Japan. The weak positive correlation was found only between the number of storms and North Pacific index in the Bering Sea and between the number of storms and Arctic oscillation index in the Barents Sea. For other seas, it is no connections between number of storms and large-scale atmospheric indices, therefore, storm activity in the inner and semi-closed seas is regulated by the local wind and ice conditions, basin orography and bathymetry.
wind waves; wave modeling; number of storms; trend; atmospheric indices
1. Aarnes, O. J., M. Reistad, Ø. Breivik, E. Bitner-Gregersen, L. I. Eide, O. Gramstad, A. K. Magnusson, B. Natvig, and E. Vanem (2017), Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122(4), 3394-3403, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521.
2. Akpınar, A., B. Bingölbali, and G. P. Van Vledder (2016), Wind and wave characteristics in the Black Sea based on the SWAN wave model forced with the CFSR winds, Ocean Engineering, 126, 276-298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.09.026.
3. Akpınar, A., H. Jafali, and E. Rusu (2019), Temporal variation of the wave energy flux in hotspot areas of the Black Sea, Sustainability, 11(3), 562, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030562.
4. Amarouche, K., and A. Akpınar (2021), Increasing trend on storm wave intensity in the western Mediterranean, Climate, 9(1), 11, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9010011.
5. Amarouche, K., A. Akpınar, N. E. I. Bachari, and F. Houma (2020), Wave energy resource assessment along the Algerian coast based on 39-year wave hindcast, Renewable Energy, 153, 840-860, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.02.040.
6. Amarouche, K., A. Akpınar, and A. Semedo (2022), Wave storm events in the Western Mediterranean Sea over four decades, Ocean Modelling, 170, 101,933, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2021.101933.
7. Amini, E., R. Asadi, D. Golbaz, M. Nasiri, S. T. O. Naeeni, M. M. Nezhad, G. Piras, and M. Neshat (2021), Comparative study of oscillating surge wave energy converter perfor- mance: a case study for southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, Sustainability, 13(19), 10,932, https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910932.
8. Amirinia, G., B. Kamranzad, and S. Mafi (2017), Wind and wave energy potential in southern Caspian Sea using uncertainty analysis, Energy, 120, 332-345, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.088.
9. Arkhipkin, V. S., F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova (2014), Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(11), 2883-2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2883-2014.
10. Aydoğan, B., and B. Ayat (2018), Spatial variability of long-term trends of significant wave heights in the Black Sea, Applied Ocean Research, 79, 20-35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j. apor.2018.07.001.
11. Battjes, J. A., and J. P. F. M. Janssen (1978), Energy Loss and Set-up Due to Breaking of Random Waves, Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(16), 32, https://doi.org/10.9753/icce. v16.32.
12. Bertin, X., E. Prouteau, and C. Letetrel (2013), A significant increase in wave height in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20th century, Global and Planetary Change, 106, 77-83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.03.009.
13. Bromirski, P. D., D. R. Cayan, J. Helly, and P. Wittmann (2013), Wave power variability and trends across the North Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(12), 6329-6348, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jc009189.
14. Çalışır, E., M. B. Soran, and A. Akpınar (2021), Quality of the ERA5 and CFSR winds and their contribution to wave modelling performance in a semi-closed sea, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 16(2), 106-130, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2021.1911126.
15. Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel (2005), Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO, Journal of Climate, 18(15), 2996-3006, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3457.1.
16. Casas-Prat, M., X. L. Wang, and N. Swart (2018), CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean, Ocean Modelling, 123, 66-85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.12.003.
17. Cavaleri, L., J.-H. Alves, F. Ardhuin, A. Babanin, M. Banner, K. Belibassakis, M. Benoit, M. Donelan, J. Groeneweg, T. Herbers, P. Hwang, P. Janssen, T. Janssen, I. Lavrenov, R. Magne, J. Monbaliu, M. Onorato, V. Polnikov, D. Resio, W. Rogers, A. Sheremet, J. M. Smith, H. Tolman, G. van Vledder, J. Wolf, and I. Young (2007), Wave modelling - The state of the art, Progress in Oceanography, 75(4), 603-674, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2007.05.005.
18. de León, S. P., and C. G. Soares (2015), Hindcast of the Hércules winter storm in the North Atlantic, Natural Hazards, 78(3), 1883-1897, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1806-7.
19. Divinsky, B. V., and R. D. Kosyan (2020), Climatic trends in the fluctuations of wind waves power in the Black Sea, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 235, 106,577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106577.
20. Divinsky, B. V., and S. B. Kuklev (2022), Climate variations of certain wave parameters at the entrance of the Novorossiysk bay, Oceanology, 62(2), 155-161, https://doi.org/10.1 134/s0001437022020035.
21. Dobrynin, M., J. Murawsky, and S. Yang (2012), Evolution of the global wind wave climate in CMIP5 experiments, Geophysical Research Letters, 39(18), 1-6, https://doi.org/10.102 9/2012gl052843.
22. Duan, C., S. Dong, and Z. Wang (2019), Wave climate analysis in the ice-free waters of Kara Sea, Regional Studies in Marine Science, 30, 100,719, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2019.100719.
23. Gippius, F. N., and S. A. Myslenkov (2020), Black Sea wind wave climate with a focus on coastal regions, Ocean Engineering, 218, 108,199, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108199.
24. Imrani, Z., S. Safarov, and E. Safarov (2022), Analysis of Wind-wave Characteristics of the Caspian Sea Based on Reanalysis Data, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 47(6), 479-484, https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373922060085.
25. Ivanov, V. V., V. S. Arkhipkin, E. M. Lemeshko, S. A. Myslenkov, A. V. Smirnov, G. V. Surkova, F. K. Tuzov, D. G. Chechin, and A. A. Shestakova (2022), Changes in hydromete- orological conditions in the Barents sea as an indicator of climatic trends in the eurasian arctic in the 21st century, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (1), 13-25, (In Russian).
26. Iwasaki, S., and J. Otsuka (2021), Evaluation of Wave-Ice Parameterization Models in WAVEWATCH III® Along the Coastal Area of the Sea of Okhotsk During Winter, Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 1-12, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.713784.
27. Kamranzad, B., A. Etemad-Shahidi, and V. Chegini (2016), Sustainability of wave energy resources in southern Caspian Sea, Energy, 97, 549-559, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.063.
28. Khon, V. C., I. I. Mokhov, F. A. Pogarskiy, A. Babanin, K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, and H. Matthes (2014), Wave heights in the 21st century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(8), 2956-2961, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl0 59847.
29. Kislov, A. V., G. V. Surkova, and V. S. Arkhipkin (2016), Occurence frequency of storm wind waves in the Baltic, Black, and Caspian Seas under changing climate conditions, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 41(2), 121-129, https://doi.org/10.3103/s106837391 6020060.
30. Kudryavtseva, N., K. Kussembayeva, Z. B. Rakisheva, and T. Soomere (2019), Spatial variations in the Caspian Sea wave climate in 2002-2013 from satellite altimetry, Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences, 68(4), 225, https://doi.org/10.3176/earth.2019.16.
31. Lama, G. F. C., T. Sadeghifar, M. T. Azad, P. Sihag, and O. Kisi (2022), On the Indirect Esti- mation of Wind Wave Heights over the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea: A Comparative Analysis, Water, 14(6), 843, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060843.
32. Lee, H. S., K. O. Kim, T. Yamashita, T. Komaguchi, and T. Mishima (2010), Abnormal storm waves in the winter East/Japan Sea: generation process and hindcasting using an atmosphere-wind wave modelling system, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(4), 773-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-773-2010.
33. Leo, F. D., S. Solari, and G. Besio (2020), Extreme wave analysis based on atmospheric pattern classification: an application along the Italian coast, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20(5), 1233-1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020.
34. Lin-Ye, J., M. García-León, V. Gràcia, M. Ortego, A. Stanica, and A. Sánchez-Arcilla (2018), Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea, Water, 10(2), 221, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020221.
35. Liu, Q., A. V. Babanin, S. Zieger, I. R. Young, and C. Guan (2016), Wind and wave climate in the Arctic Ocean as observed by altimeters, Journal of Climate, 29(22), 7957-7975, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0219.1.
36. Lopatoukhin, L. I. (2019), Wind wave climate of the Caspian Sea, Journal of Oceanolog- ical Research, 47(5), 89-97, https://doi.org/10.29006/1564-2291.jor-2019.47(5).7, (In Russian).
37. Lopatoukhin, L. I., A. V. Boukhanovsky, A. B. Degtyarev, and V. A. Rozhkov (2003), Reference data of wind and waves climate of the Barents sea, the sea of Okhotsk, and the Caspian Sea, 213 pp., Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, Saint-Petersburg.
38. Lopatoukhin, L. I., A. V. Boukhanovsky, S. V. Ivanov, and E. S. Chernysheva (2006), Reference data on the regime of wind and waves of the Baltic, Northern, Black, Azov and Mediterranean seas, 450 pp., Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, Saint-Petersburg.
39. Lopatoukhin, L. I., A. V. Boukhanovsky, and E. S. Chernysheva (2009), Reference data on the regime of wind and waves of the sea of Japan and the Kara sea, 356 pp., Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, Saint-Petersburg.
40. Lopatoukhin, L. I., A. V. Boukhanovsky, and E. S. Chernysheva (2010), Reference data on the regime of wind and waves of the Bering and White seas, 565 pp., Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, Saint-Petersburg.
41. Lopatukhin, L. I., and N. A. Yaitskaya (2018), Peculiarities of the Approach to Calculation of Wind Waves in the Caspian Sea, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 43(4), 245-250, https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373918040052.
42. Lyubitskiy, Y. V., A. N. Vrazhkin, and P. O. Kharlamov (2021), Forecasting of hazardous marine hydrometeorological phenomena for the regions of oil and gas deposit develop- ment on the Sea of Okhotsk Shelf, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 895(1), 012,023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/895/1/012023.
43. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis (1997), A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(6), 1069-1079, https://doi.org/10/b9kgqq.
44. Maslova, V. N., E. N. Voskresenskaya, A. S. Lubkov, A. V. Yurovsky, V. Y. Zhuravskiy, and V. P. Evstigneev (2020), Intense Cyclones in the Black Sea Region: Change, Variability, Predictability and Manifestations in the Storm Activity, Sustainability, 12(11), 4468, https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114468.
45. Mei, W., and S.-P. Xie (2016), Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s, Nature Geoscience, 9(10), 753-757, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2792.
46. Morales-Márquez, V., A. Orfila, G. Simarro, and M. Marcos (2020), Extreme waves and climatic patterns of variability in the eastern North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, Ocean Science, 16(6), 1385-1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1385-2020.
47. Morim, J., C. Trenham, M. Hemer, X. L. Wang, N. Mori, M. Casas-Prat, A. Semedo, T. Shimura, B. Timmermans, P. Camus, L. Bricheno, L. Mentaschi, M. Dobrynin, Y. Feng, and L. Erikson (2020), A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5- driven models, Scientific Data, 7(1), 105, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0446-2.
48. Myslenkov, S., A. Medvedeva, V. Arkhipkin, M. Markina, G. Surkova, A. Krylov, S. Do- brolyubov, S. Zilitinkevich, and P. Koltermann (2018a), Long-term statistics of storms in the Baltic, Barents and White seas and their future climate projections, Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 11(1), 93-112, https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-1-93-112.
49. Myslenkov, S., M. Markina, V. Arkhipkin, and N. Tilinina (2019), Frequency of storms in the Barents Sea under modern climate conditions, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (2), 45-54, (In Russian).
50. Myslenkov, S., V. Platonov, A.Kislov, K. Silvestrova, and I. Medvedev (2021a), Thirty-Nine- Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia, Water, 13(5), 648, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050648.
51. Myslenkov, S., A. Shestakova, and D. Chechin (2021b), The impact of sea waves on turbulent heat fluxes in the Barents Sea according to numerical modeling, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(7), 5575-5595, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5575-2021.
52. Myslenkov, S. A., V. S. Arkhipkin, A. V. Pavlova, and S. A. Dobrolyubov (2018b), Wave climate in the Caspian Sea based on wave hindcast, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 43(10), 670-678, https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373918100060.
53. Myslenkov, S. V., V. S. Arkhipkin, and K. P. Koltermann (2015), Evaluation of swell height in the Barents and White Seas, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (5), 59-66, (In Russian).
54. Ogorodov, S., D. Aleksyutina, A. Baranskaya, N. Shabanova, and O. Shilova (2020), Coastal erosion of the Russian Arctic: An overview, Journal of Coastal Research, 95(sp1), 599-604, https://doi.org/10.2112/si95-117.1.
55. Ogorodov, S. A., N. N. Shabanova, A. S. Kessel, A. V. Baranskaya, and S. O. Razumov (2022), Changes of hydrometeorological potential of thermoabrasion on the Russian Arctic coasts, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (1), 26-42, (In Russian).
56. Onea, F., and L. Rusu (2017), A Long-Term Assessment of the Black Sea Wave Climate, Sustainability, 9(10), 1875, https://doi.org/10.3390/su9101875.
57. Osipov, A. M., and D. Y. Gushchina (2021), Mechanism of generating two types of EL NIÑO under modern climatic conditions, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (1), 128-135, (In Russian).
58. Pavlova, A., S. Myslenkov, V. Arkhipkin, and G. Surkova (2022), Storm surges and extreme wind waves in the Caspian sea in the present and future climate, Civil Engineering Journal, 8(11), 2353-2377, https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2022-08-11-01.
59. Platonov, V. S., S. A. Myslenkov, V. S. Arkhipkin, and A. V. Kislov (2022), High-resolution modelling of the hydrometeorological fields over the Kara sea coastal regions in complex coastline conditions, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (1), 87-106, (In Russian).
60. Rusu, L. (2015), Assessment of the wave energy in the Black Sea based on a 15-year hindcast with data assimilation, Energies, 8(9), 10,370-10,388, https://doi.org/10.3390/en80910 370.
61. Rusu, L., S. P. de León, and C. G. Soares (2015), Numerical modelling of the North Atlantic storms affecting the West Iberian coast, in Maritime Technology and Engineering, pp. 1365- 1370, CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, London, https://doi.org/10.1201/b17494-184.
62. Sasaki, W. (2012), Changes in wave energy resources around Japan, Geophysical Research Letters, 39(23), 1-6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053845.
63. Selivanova, J., P. Verezemskaya, N. Tilinina, S. Gulev, and S. Dobrolyubov (2021), The importance of the sea ice marginal zone for the surface turbulent heat fluxes in Arctic on the basis of NCEP CFSR reanalysis, Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 21(2), 1-8, https://doi.org/10.2205/2020ES000744.
64. Semedo, A., R. Vettor, Ø. Breivik, A. Sterl, M. Reistad, C. G. Soares, and D. Lima (2014), The wind sea and swell waves climate in the Nordic seas, Ocean Dynamics, 65(2), 223-240, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-014-0788-4.
65. Sharmar, V., and M. Markina (2021), Evaluation of interdecadal trends in sea ice, surface winds and ocean waves in the Arctic in 1980-2019, Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 21(2), 1-11, https://doi.org/10.2205/2020ES000741.
66. Shimura, T., and N. Mori (2019), High-resolution wave climate hindcast around Japan and its spectral representation, Coastal Engineering, 151, 1-9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.04.013.
67. Shimura, T., N. Mori, and H. Mase (2013), Ocean Waves and Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, 26(21), 8654-8670, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00397.1.
68. Smirnov, V. G., I. A. Bychkova, N. Y. Zakhvatkina, S. V. Mikhal’tseva, and E. V. Platonova (2021), Estimation of the Ice-free Period Length for the Russian Arctic Seas Based on Satellite Data for 2018-2020, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 46(10), 683-688, https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373921100058.
69. Stefanakos, C. (2021), Global Wind and Wave Climate Based on Two Reanalysis Databases: ECMWF ERA5 and NCEP CFSR, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 9(9), 990, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9090990.
70. Stopa, J. E., F. Ardhuin, and F. Girard-Ardhuin (2016), Wave climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: Seasonality and trends, The Cryosphere, 10(4), 1605-1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1605-2016.
71. Surkova, G. V., and V. A. Romanenko (2021), Seasonal and long-term changes of turbulent heat fluxes between sea and atmosphere in western sector of the Russian Arctic, Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5: Geography, (4), 74-82, (In Russian).
72. Tolman, H. (2019), User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 6.07, 465 pp., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB, College Park, MD, USA.
73. Trenberth, K. E., and J. W. Hurrell (1994), Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific, Climate Dynamics, 9(6), 303-319, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204745.
74. Türkeş, M., and E. Erlat (2018), Variability and trends in record air temperature events of Turkey and their associations with atmospheric oscillations and anomalous circulation patterns, International Journal of Climatology, 38(14), 5182-5204, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5720.
75. Van Vledder, G. P., and A. Akpınar (2015), Wave model predictions in the Black Sea: Sensitivity to wind fields, Applied Ocean Research, 53, 161-178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2015.08.006.
76. Vrazhkin, A. N. (2013), Application of spectral wave model for some areas of the Far Eastern Seas and the Pacific Ocean, Pacific Oceanography, 6(1), 5-9.
77. Wang, X. L., and V. R. Swail (2001), Changes of extreme wave heights in Northern Hemi- sphere oceans and related atmospheric circulation regimes, Journal of Climate, 14(10), 2204-2221, https://doi.org/10/dz8fqn.
78. Waseda, T., A. Webb, K. Sato, J. Inoue, A. Kohout, B. Penrose, and S. Penrose (2018), Correlated increase of high ocean waves and winds in the ice-free waters of the Arctic Ocean, Scientific Reports, 8(1), 1-9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22500-9.
79. Yaitskaya, N. A. (2017), Retrospective analysis of wind waves in the Caspian Sea in the second half of the XX-beginning of the XXI century and its connection with the regional climate changes, Geographical bulletin, (2(41)), 57-70, https://doi.org/10.17072/2079-78 77-2017-2-57-70, (In Russian).
80. Young, I. R., and A. Ribal (2019), Multiplatform evaluation of global trends in wind speed and wave height, Science, 364(6440), 548-552, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav9527.
81. Zieger, S., A. V. Babanin, W. E. Rogers, and I. R. Young (2015), Observation-based source terms in the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH, Ocean Modelling, 96, 2-25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.014.
