Russian Federation
from 01.01.2008 until now
Moscow, Russian Federation
UDC 632.126
UDC 55
UDC 550.34
UDC 550.383
CSCSTI 37.31
CSCSTI 37.01
CSCSTI 37.15
CSCSTI 37.25
CSCSTI 38.01
CSCSTI 36.00
CSCSTI 37.00
CSCSTI 38.00
CSCSTI 39.00
CSCSTI 52.00
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 05.06.01
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 26
Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 63
BISAC SCI SCIENCE
A systematic earthquake prediction is performed regularly at fixed intervals within a preselected seismically homogeneous zone. The result of each prediction iteration is a map highlighting the alarm zones, where the epicenters of target earthquakes are expected. The proposed methodology introduces the following innovations: 1 – A prediction is considered successful if all epicenters of the target earthquakes during the forecast interval fall within the alarm zone. 2 – The methodology optimizes both the probability of successfully detecting earthquake epicenters across a series of forecasts and the success rate of predictions in each individual iteration. 3 – The methodology enables the estimation of the probability of success for the next forecast interval. Examples of the method's application are demonstrated for predicting earthquakes in Kamchatka, California, and the island region of Japan.
systematic earthquake prediction, machine learning, the method of the minimum area of alarm, GPS time series
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