The July 29, 2025 Kamchatka Earthquake, MW 8.9: Examination Based on Regional Data Through End-2025
Аннотация и ключевые слова
Аннотация:
This article presents data on the MW 8.9 Kamchatka earthquake of July 29, 2025, compiled by the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS) as of December 31, 2025. The Kamchatka earthquake is one of the largest seismic events in the history of instrumental observations. To date it ranks as the sixth most powerful event ever recorded in the world. The rupture zone, estimated based on the aftershock area, is 580 × 180 km and roughly coincides with the source area of the Great Kamchatka Earthquake of November 4, 1952 (MW 9.0). The 73-year gap between these two megathrust earthquakes that occurred approximately in the same area is significantly shorter than what would be expected from the widely accepted concepts of the seismic cycle. The article provides information on source parameters of the main shock, the operation of the Tsunami Warning Service, a catalog of aftershock mechanisms, the characteristics of strong ground motions caused by the main shock, and a brief description of the manifestation of a tsunami. A preliminary assessment of the macroseismic impact of the Kamchatka earthquake and its aftershocks revealed that the earthquake caused shaking of intensity 7–8 on the SIS-17 scale in Severo-Kurilsk and 6–7 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky; no human casualties or serious damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami were recorded throughout the entire area of their propagation. Features of the source process development revealed by the results of the analysis of the diurnal variation of seismic energy released after the main event are discussed. The finite fault slip model of the earthquake based on the coseismic displacements from GNSS observations is presented.

Ключевые слова:
Kamchatka, strongest earthquakes, seismic focal zone, aftershocks, focal mechanism, macroseismics, tsunami, Kamchatka megathrust earthquake
Список литературы

1. Abubakirov I. R., Gusev A. A., Guseva E. M., et al. Mass determination of moment magnitudes MW and establishing the relationship between MW and ML for moderate and small Kamchatka earthquakes // Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth. — 2018. — Vol. 54, no. 1. — P. 33–47. — https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351318010019

2. Abubakirov I. R. and Pavlov V. M. Determining the double couple moment tensor for Kamchatka earthquakes from regional seismic waveforms // Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth. — 2021. — Vol. 57, no. 3. — P. 332–347. — https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351321030010

3. Båth M. Lateral inhomogeneities of the upper mantle // Tectonophysics. — 1965. — Vol. 2, no. 6. — P. 483–514. — https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(65)90003-X

4. Chebrov D. V. The Mw = 8.8 Kamchatka megathrust earthquake of july 29, 2025 // Bulletin of Kamchatka Regional Association «Educational-Scientific Center». Earth Sciences. — 2025. — 3(67). — P. 113–117. — https://doi.org/10.31431/1816-5524-2025-3-67-113-117 — (In Russian).

5. Chebrov D. V., Matveenko E. A., Abubakirov I. R., et al. The MW 7.0 Shipunsky Earthquake of August 17, 2024 off the East Coast of Kamchatka // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2025a. — Vol. 19, no. 3. — P. 271–280. — https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046325700101

6. Chebrov D. V., Matveenko E. A., Abubakirov I. R., et al. Vilyuchinskoye earthquake April 3, 2023 MW 6.6 in Avacha Gulf (Kamchatka) // Vulkanologiya i Sejsmologiya. — 2025b. — No. 6. — P. 31–49. — https://doi.org/10.7868/S3034513825060031 — (In Russian).

7. Chebrov D. V., Tikhonov S. A., Droznin D. V., et al. Kamchatka seismic monitoring and Earthquake prediction system and its evolution. Main results of observations in 2016-2020 // Russian Journal of Seismology. — 2021. — Vol. 3, no. 3. — P. 28–49. — https://doi.org/10.35540/2686-7907.2021.3.02 — (In Russian).

8. Chebrov V. N. Expansion of the system of the seismological observations for tsunami warning in Far East of Russia // Bulletin of Kamchatka Regional Association «Educational-Scientific Center». Earth Sciences. — 2007. — 1(9). — P. 27–36. — (In Russian).

9. Chebrov V. N., Drozhin D. V., Kugaenko Yu. A., et al. The system of detailed seismological observations in Kamchatka in 2011 // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2013. — Vol. 7, no. 1. — P. 16–36. — https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046313010028

10. Chebrov V. N., Drozhina S. Ya., Senyukov S. L., et al. Kamchatka and Komandor Islands // The earthquakes of Russia in 2013. — Obninsk : GS RAS, 2015. — P. 58–65. — (In Russian).

11. Chubarova O. S., Gusev A. A. and Chebrov V. N. The ground motion excited by the Olyutorskii earthquake of April 20, 2006 and by its aftershocks based on digital recordings // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2010. — Vol. 4, no. 2. — P. 126–138. — https://doi.org/10.1134/s0742046310020065

12. Droznin D. V., Chebrov D. V., Droznina S. Ya., et al. Automated estimation of seismic shaking intensity from instrumental data in quasi-real-time mode and its use in the operation of the Seismic Early Warning Service in the Kamchatka Region // Seismic Instruments. — 2018. — Vol. 54, no. 3. — P. 239–246. — https://doi.org/10.3103/S0747923918030088

13. Droznin D. V. and Droznina S. Y. Interactive DIMAS program for processing seismic signals // Seismic Instruments. — 2011. — Vol. 47, no. 3. — P. 215–224. — https://doi.org/10.3103/s0747923911030054

14. Dziewonski A. M., Chou T.-A. and Woodhouse J. H. Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity // Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. — 1981. — Vol. 86, B4. — P. 2825–2852. — https://doi.org/10.1029/JB086iB04p02825

15. Ekström G., Nettles M. and Dziewoński A. M. The global CMT project 2004-2010: Centroid-moment tensors for 13,017 earthquakes // Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors. — 2012. — Vol. 200/201. — P. 1–9. — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2012.04.002

16. Fedotov S. A. On the seismic cycle, possibilities of quantitative seismic zonation, and long-term earthquake prediction // Seismic Zoning of the USSR. — Moscow : Nauka, 1968. — P. 121–150. — (In Russian).

17. Fedotov S. A. Energy classification of Kuril-Kamchatka earthquakes and the problem of magnitudes. — Moscow : Nauka, 1972. — 116 p. — (In Russian).

18. Gordeev E. I., Fedotov S. A. and Chebrov V. N. Main results of seismological studies in Kamchatka based on detailed observations in 1961-2011 // Seismological and geophysical studies in Kamchatka. Dedicated to 50th anniversary of regional seismological research. — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky : Novaya Kniga, 2012. — P. 9–35. — (In Russian).

19. Gordeev E. I., Levina V. I., Chebrov V. N., et al. Earthquakes of Kamchatka and the Commander Islands // Earthquakes of Northern Eurasia in 1993. — Moscow : GS RAN, 1999. — P. 102–114. — (In Russian).

20. Gospodinov D. and Rotondi R. Statistical Analysis of Triggered Seismicity in the Kresna Region of SW Bulgaria (1904) and the Umbria-Marche Region of Central Italy (1997) // Pure and Applied Geophysics. — 2006. — Vol. 163, no. 8. — P. 1597–1615. — https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-006-0084-4

21. Gusev A. A. The schematic map of the source zones of large Kamchatka earthquakes of the instrumental epoch // Complex seismological and geophysical researches of Kamchatka. To 25th Anniversary of Kamchatkan Experimental & Methodical Seismological Department. — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky : GS RAS, 2004. — P. 75–80. — (In Russian).

22. Gusev A. A. and Shumilina L. S. Recurrence of Kamchatka strong earthquakes on a scale of moment magnitudes // Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth. — 2004. — Vol. 40, no. 3. — P. 206–215.

23. Gutenberg B. The energy of earthquakes // Quarterly Journal of the Geological Society of London. — 1956. — Vol. 112, no. 1–4. — P. 1–14. — https://doi.org/10.1144/gsl.jgs.1956.112.01-04.02

24. Kagan Y. Simplified algorithms for calculating double-couple rotation // Geophysical Journal International. — 2007. — Vol. 171, no. 1. — P. 411–418. — https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03538.x

25. Kanamori H. The energy release in great earthquakes // Journal of Geophysical Research. — 1977. — Vol. 82, no. 20. — P. 2981–2987. — https://doi.org/10.1029/jb082i020p02981

26. Lander A. V., Shevchenko N. A. and Matveenko E. A. An artifact in the Kamchatka earthquake catalog: study and elimination // Bulletin of Kamchatka Regional Association «Educational-Scientific Center». Earth Sciences. — 2019. — 1(41). — P. 85–90. — https://doi.org/10.31431/1816-5524-2019-1-41-85-90 — (In Russian).

27. Levina V. I., Lander A. V., Mityushkina S. V., et al. The seismicity of the Kamchatka region: 1962-2011 // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2013. — Feb. — Vol. 7, no. 1. — P. 37–57. — https://doi.org/10.1134/s0742046313010053

28. Melnikov Yu. Yu. A Software Package for Determining Earthquake Hypocenters in Kamchatka on a Computer // Vulkanologiya i Sejsmologiya. — 1990. — No. 5. — P. 103–112. — (In Russian).

29. Mityushkina S. V., Tokarev A. V., Raevskaya A. A., et al. Automatic processing of macroseismic information on Kamchatka earthquakes based on an Internet questionnaire // Problems of Comprehensive Geophysical Monitoring of the Russian Far East. Proceedings of the Third Scientific and Technical Conference. — Obninsk : GS RAN, 2011. — P. 376–380. — (In Russian).

30. Ogata Y. Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes // Journal of the American Statistical Association. — 1988. — Vol. 83, no. 401. — P. 9–27. — https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478560

31. Okada Y. Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space // Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. — 1985. — Vol. 75, no. 4. — P. 1135–1154. — https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0750041135

32. Pavlov V. M. and Abubakirov I. R. Algorithm for calculation of seismic moment tensor of strong earthquakes using regional broadband seismograms of body waves // Bulletin of Kamchatka Regional Association «Educational-Scientific Center». Earth Sciences. — 2012. — 2(20). — P. 149–158. — (In Russian).

33. Pinegina T. K., Ozerov A. Y., Tsvetkov V. A., et al. Tsunami from the Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake of 29 July 2025 on the East Coast of Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands // Pure and Applied Geophysics. — 2026. — Vol. 183, no. 1. — P. 1–25. — https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03873-1

34. Saltykov V. A. Possible problems of evaluation of spatial-temporal features of earthquake catalog representativity: case study for the Kamchatka catalog of Geophysical Survey of RAS // Bulletin of Kamchatka Regional Association «Educational-Scientific Center». Earth Sciences. — 2019. — Vol. 3(43). — P. 66–74. — https://doi.org/10.31431/1816-5524-2019-3-43-66-74 — (In Russian).

35. Saltykov V. A. Aftershocks of the April 3, 2023, Mw 6.6 Vilyuchinsk Earthquake, Kamchatka // Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth. — 2025. — Vol. 61, no. 6. — P. 925–937. — https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351325700909

36. Senyukov S. L., Droznina S. Ya. and Droznin D. V. 15 years of the operational final regional earthquake catalog for Kamchatka and the Commander Islands // Proceedings of the Tenth All Russian Scientific and Technical Conference with International Participation “Problems of Integrated Geophysical Monitoring of Seismically Active Regions” (Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky, September 28 – October 4, 2025). — Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky : KB GS RAS, 2025. — P. 164–172. — (In Russian).

37. U.S. Geological Survey, ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat). — 2026. — URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/comcat/ ; Accessed [April 10, 2026].

38. U.S. Geological Survey [online dataset]. Utsu T. Aftershocks and earthquake statistics (II): further investigation of aftershocks and other earthquake sequences based on a new classification of earthquake sequences // Journal of the Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University. Series VII (Geophysics). — 1970. — Vol. 3, no. 4. — P. 197–266.

39. Volfman Yu. M., Pustovitenko B. G. and Kolesnikova E. Ya. New results of the tectonophysical analysis of the focal mechanisms of earthquakes in the Crimean-Black Sea region // Scientific Notes of V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University. Geography. Geology. — 2022. — Vol. 8, no. 4. — P. 163–206. — (In Russian).

40. Yunga S. L. On the mechanism of deformation of the seismically active volume of the Earth’s crust // Izvestiya AN SSSR. Fizika Zemli. — 1979. — No. 10. — P. 14–23.


Войти или Создать
* Забыли пароль?