Геофизический центр Российской Академии Наук (Лаборатория геоинформатики и геомагнитных исследований, старший научный сотрудник)
Россия
Институт физики Земли им. О. Ю. Шмидта РАН
Москва, Россия
УДК 550.37 Геоэлектричество. Земные токи
УДК 55 Геология. Геологические и геофизические науки
УДК 550.34 Сейсмология
УДК 550.383 Главное магнитное поле Земли
ГРНТИ 37.01 Общие вопросы геофизики
ГРНТИ 37.15 Геомагнетизм и высокие слои атмосферы
ГРНТИ 37.25 Океанология
ГРНТИ 37.31 Физика Земли
ГРНТИ 38.01 Общие вопросы геологии
ГРНТИ 36.00 ГЕОДЕЗИЯ. КАРТОГРАФИЯ
ГРНТИ 37.00 ГЕОФИЗИКА
ГРНТИ 38.00 ГЕОЛОГИЯ
ГРНТИ 39.00 ГЕОГРАФИЯ
ГРНТИ 52.00 ГОРНОЕ ДЕЛО
ОКСО 05.00.00 Науки о Земле
ББК 26 Науки о Земле
ТБК 63 Науки о Земле. Экология
BISAC SCI SCIENCE
The development and implementation of new correlation-statistical models for the operational assessment of technospheric risks arising from the impact of space weather on power electric systems operating within the boundaries of the auroral oval is currently an urgent research problem with a pronounced applied nature. Such models demonstrate the highest practical significance in polar subregions with a low density of coverage by reliable and credible sources of geomagnetic data (Taimyr Peninsula, Gydan Peninsula, northern regions of Yakutia, etc.), i.e., in fact, the overwhelming territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Thus, the paper is concerned with a new approach, which is proposed to the non-hardware assessment of the level of geoinduced currents (GIC) in the power electric systems of the AZRF, which is based on correlation-statistical modeling of the GIC level according to the observation of auroras as an accessible natural indicator of space weather state. Using the example of the Vykhodnoy substation of the Northern Transit main power grid, it is shown that when registering auroras in the north, at the zenith, and in the south, the probable (averaged over 30 min) GIC levels are ~0.08 A, ~0.23 A, and ~0.68 A, respectively. At the same time, the probability of exceeding the average half-hour GIC levels of 2 A (in the case of auroras in the north, at the zenith, and in the south) are ~6%, ~10%, and ~15%, respectively.
geoinduced currents, auroras, geomagnetic variations, space weather, high-latitude power electric systems, statistical models.
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