Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data

Viktor Pupatenko; Dmitriy A. Safonov; Nikolay Shestakov

doi:10.2205/2026es001119

VAK Russia 1.6.9 UDC 550.34 CSCSTI 37.31 Russian Classification of Professions by Education 05.00.00 Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 263 Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 6323 BISAC SCI082000 VAK Russia 1.6 UDC 55 UDC 550.383 CSCSTI 37.01 CSCSTI 37.15 CSCSTI 37.25 CSCSTI 38.01 CSCSTI 36.00 CSCSTI 37.00 CSCSTI 38.00 CSCSTI 39.00 CSCSTI 52.00 Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 26 Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 63 BISAC SCI

22 more Collapse

MOMENT MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION OF THE JULY 29, 2025, KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE BASED ON ACCELEROMETERS DATA Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data

АА Аа

Published in Russian Journal of Earth Sciences · Volume 26, Issue 2 · ELocator: ES2009 · Rubric: KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE M 8.8 ON JULY 29, 2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001119 · EDN: UCGBIL

Received: 02.02.2026 Accepted: 25.05.2026 Published: 01.07.2026 Language of publication: ENG

Authors

Viktor Pupatenko

ORCID

Dmitriy A. Safonov

ORCID

Nikolay Shestakov

ORCID

Viktor Pupatenko

Yu.A. Kosygin Institute of Tectonics and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Research Organization of the Russian Academy of Sciences Senior Researcher · Russian Federation · Khabarovsk

ORCID

Dmitriy A. Safonov

Sakhalin Branch of FRC UGS RAS Russian Federation

Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics FEB RAS Russian Federation

ORCID

Nikolay Shestakov

Far Eastern Federal University assosiate professor · Vladivostok

Institute of Applied Mathematics FEB RAS Russian Federation

ORCID

ABSTRACT

On July 29, 2025, a major earthquake with a moment magnitude of MW = 8.8 occurred off the coast of Kamchatka. The most accurate and rapid estimation of the magnitude of such events is a crucial task in modern seismology, particularly in the context of earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. In this study, we propose and test an approach for rapid MW estimation from accelerometer records based on an empirical relationship between peak ground displacement (PGD) and moment magnitude. Unlike most similar studies, we rely exclusively on accelerometric data from 13 seismic stations on Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, without the use of GNSS observations. The final MW estimate derived from all stations was 8.75 ± 0.2, which is consistent with values reported by international agencies. Simulating real-time data processing demonstrated that a first stable magnitude estimate of MW = 7.6 ± 1.3 could be obtained as early as 4.5 minutes after the earthquake origin time, with a value of MW = 8.65 ± 0.3 available after 8 minutes. The results indicate that, given an existing accelerometer network, this methodology can provide reliable and sufficiently rapid estimates of the moment magnitude of major earthquakes without the need for GNSS data. This opens possibilities for enhancing the timeliness of source parameter estimation and for improving tsunami early warning systems in regions with developed seismic infrastructure, without requiring major modifications to existing seismic data processing systems.

KEYWORDS

Accelerograms, peak ground displacement, accelerometer network, warning system, great earthquakes, Kamchatka megathrust earthquake

Funding

The work was carried out under the State Assignment of the ITiG FEB RAS No. 126020216323-2. Work of N. V. Shestakov was partially supported by the state assignment for IAM FEB RAS No. 075-00459-25-00. The data used in the work were obtained with large-scale research facilities “Seismic infrasound array for monitoring Arctic cryolitozone and continuous seismic monitoring of the Russian Federation, neighbouring territories and the world” (https://ckp-rf.ru/usu/507436/).

Text

Text (PDF)

Read Download

1. Allen R. M., Gasparini P., Kamigaichi O., et al. The status of earthquake early warning around the world: An introductory overview // Seismological Research Letters. — 2009. — Vol. 80, no. 5. — P. 682–693. — https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.80.5.682

2. Blewitt G., Hammond W. C., Kreemer C., et al. GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems // Journal of Geodesy. — 2009. — Vol. 83, no. 3/4. — P. 335–343. — https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-008-0262-5

3. Crowell B. W., Melgar D., Bock Y., et al. Earthquake magnitude scaling using seismogeodetic data // Geophysical Research Letters. — 2013. — Vol. 40, no. 23. — P. 6089–6094. — https://doi.org/10.1002/2013gl058391

4. Crowell B. W., Melgar D. and Geng J. Hypothetical real-time GNSS modeling of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake: ¯ Perspectives from ground motion and tsunami inundation prediction // Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. — 2018. — Vol. 108, 3B. — P. 1736–1745. — https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170247

5. Hoshiba M. and Iwakiri K. Initial 30 seconds of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M w 9.0)-amplitude and τ c for magnitude estimation for Earthquake Early Warning- // Earth, Planets and Space. — 2011. — Vol. 63, no. 7. — P. 553–557. — https://doi.org/10.5047/eps.2011.06.015

6. Hoshiba M. and Ozaki T. Earthquake early warning and tsunami warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and their performance in the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw 9.0) // Early Warning for Geological Disasters. — Berlin : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. — P. 1–28. — https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12233-0_1

7. Kostylev D. V. Formation of a unified system for collecting seismological information in the Sakhalin Division GS RAS // Russian Journal of Seismology. — 2021. — Vol. 3, no. 1. — P. 41–53. — https://doi.org/10.35540/2686-7907.2021.1.03 — (In Russian).

8. Melgar D., Bock Y., Sanchez D., et al. On robust and reliable automated baseline corrections for strong motion seismology // Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. — 2013. — Vol. 118, no. 3. — P. 1177–1187. — https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrb.50135

9. Melgar D., Crowell B. W., Geng J., et al. Earthquake magnitude calculation without saturation from the scaling of peak ground displacement // Geophysical Research Letters. — 2015. — Vol. 42, no. 13. — P. 5197–5205. — https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl064278

10. Murray J. R., Crowell B. W., Murray M. H., et al. Incorporation of real-time earthquake magnitudes estimated via peak ground displacement scaling in the ShakeAlert earthquake Early Warning System // Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. — 2023. — Vol. 113, no. 3. — P. 1286–1310. — https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220181

11. Ohta Y., Inoue T., Koshimura S., et al. Role of Real-Time GNSS in Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting // Journal of Disaster Research. — 2018. — Vol. 13, no. 3. — P. 453–459. — https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0453

12. Ruhl C., Melgar D., Geng J., et al. A Global Database of Strong-Motion Displacement GNSS Recordings and an Example Application to PGD Scaling // Seismological Research Letters. — 2018. — Vol. 90, no. 1. — P. 271–279. — https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180177

13. Shu Y., Fang R., Geng J., et al. Broadband Velocities and Displacements From Integrated GPS and Accelerometer Data for High-Rate Seismogeodesy // Geophysical Research Letters. — 2018. — Vol. 45, no. 17. — P. 8939–8948. — https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079425

14. Wright T. J., Houlié N., Hildyard M., et al. Real-time, reliable magnitudes for large earthquakes from 1 Hz GPS precise point positioning: The 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) earthquake // Geophysical Research Letters. — 2012. — Vol. 39, no. 12. — https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051894

15. Xin S., Geng J., Zeng R., et al. In-situ real-time seismogeodesy by integrating multi-GNSS and accelerometers // Measurement. — 2021. — Vol. 179. — P. 109453. — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2021.109453

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

PDF JATS XML

Chief Editor

Alexei Gvishiani

rjes@wdcb.ru

Deputy Chief Editor

Boris Dzeboev

rjes@wdcb.ru

Managing Editor

Ernest Kedrov

ernest.kedrov@ya.ru

Responsible Secretary

Natalya Kareva

rjes@wdcb.ru

779

downloads

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Creative Commons

GOST

Pupatenko V. V., Safonov D. A., Shestakov N. V. Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data // Russian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2025. no. 2. ES2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001119. EDN: UCGBIL. (Date of access 04.10.2026).

MLA

Viktor Pupatenko, Safonov D. A., Shestakov N. V.. "Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data." Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 26.2 (2025): ES2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001119. EDN: UCGBIL.

APA

Pupatenko V. V., Safonov D. A., Shestakov N. V. (2025). Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data. Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 26(2), ES2009. https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001119 EDN: UCGBIL.

Chicago

Viktor Pupatenko, Safonov D. A., Shestakov N. V.. "Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data." Russian Journal of Earth Sciences 26, no. 2 (2025): ES2009. https://doi.org/10.2205/2026es001119. EDN: UCGBIL.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Pupatenko V. V., Safonov D. A., Shestakov N. V. | title = Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data | journal = Russian Journal of Earth Sciences | year = 2025 | volume = 26 | issue = 2 | pages = ES2009 | doi = 10.2205/2026es001119 }} EDN: UCGBIL

Copy

Export: BibTeX EndNote RefMan RusMARC

MOMENT MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION OF THE JULY 29, 2025, KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE BASED ON ACCELEROMETERS DATA Moment Magnitude Estimation of the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka Earthquake Based on Accelerometers Data

Confirmation